Obama Picks Up Omaha Electoral Vote in "Red" Nebraska! Landslide Climbs to 365 Electoral Votes.
A BUZZFLASH NEWS ALERT
It took a couple days to determine, but Barack Obama just added one more "Red State" electoral vote to his landslide: the Omaha congressional district!
Remember that Nebraska and Maine are the only two states to apportion their electoral votes. Obama won all the Maine electoral votes.
On Friday, a final count of absentee ballots resulted in Barack Obama picking up Omaha's 2nd Congressional District, according to the Omaha World-Herald:
For the first time ever, a blue circle will appear in Nebraska on national electoral maps.
Democrat Barack Obama won the Omaha-based 2nd Congressional District on Friday, scooping up one of the state's five electoral votes.
In the process, he made history and shone the spotlight on Nebraska's unusual electoral college system.
Obama won 8,434 of 15,039 mail-in ballots counted Friday by Douglas County election officials. These early ballots arrived in the election commissioner's office too late to be included in Tuesday's election results.
The additional votes gave Obama a 1,260-vote lead over Republican John McCain in unofficial returns. McCain won the popular vote statewide and four electoral votes.
The Obama campaign was actively contesting McCain for the Nebraska 2nd congressional district electoral vote and prevailed, further advancing the break-up of the former Republican "Red State" voting block.
The Nebraska development moves Obama's landslide victory up to 365 electoral votes. (Only Missouri remains officially undeclared, although it is likely to end up in the McCain column.)
A BUZZFLASH NEWS ALERT
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The 2008 Election Model Predicted the Electoral Vote (365-173)
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/Final2008ElectionModel365EV.htm
The Final 2008 Election Model (EM) projection exactly matched the 365-173 electoral vote and Obama's recorded popular vote share (53%).
The model projected that Obama would have 365.3 expected electoral votes with a 53.1-44.9% margin. The current recorded vote margin is 65.3-57.4m (53-46%).
But Obama's Recorded vote was less than the True Vote. In every election the great majority (70-80%) of uncounted votes are Democratic.
Obama’s expected EV was calculated by a simple product summation formula: the cumulative sum of his win probability in each state multiplied by the electoral vote. The state win probability is a function of the polling spread and margin of error.
The expected EV is very close to the 365.8 average EV from the 5000 election trial Monte Carlo simulation. Obama won all 5000 trials; his electoral vote win probability was 100%.
The EM projected that Obama would win by 75.9-64.2m out of 143m total votes cast and capture 60% of undecided voters (the base case UVA scenario). The 75% UVA scenario gave him 53.9% (or 55.0% of the two-party vote) and 379.5 EV.
But the landslide was denied . Obama did better than the EM and recorded vote indicates. Only 124m votes have been counted so far (122m were recorded in 2004 and 105m in 2000). Democrats traditionally win 75% of uncounted votes.
The 2008 Election Calculator (EC) is a complementary True Vote model based on an estimated, feasible 2004 returning voter mix and vote shares. It projected that Obama would win the True Vote with a 54.5-44.4% share (78.3-63.8m).
The Election Calculator model also projected that the Recorded Vote would not equal the True Vote. It never is. The assumption was that 3% of total votes cast would go uncounted and 3% switched to McCain. Obama's True Vote margin would therefore be reduced to a Recorded 52.2-46.8% share (72.8-65.2m).
Right wing pundits are claiming that Obama does not have a mandate. Since when is an 8 million margin not a mandate? But Obama won by more than 8 million votes. The True Vote will only be revealed if there is a real investigation by congress and/or the media.
Election Model and Election Calculator Summary
(input assumptions and base case scenario results)
2008
EM - Obama 53.1%; 365.3 expected EV; 60% UVA.
EC - Obama 54.5%; feasible mix of returning 2004 voters and 12:22am NEP vote shares.
2004
EM - Kerry 51.3%; 337 expected EV; 75% UVA; unadjusted state aggregate exit poll: 52-47%.
EC - Kerry 53.2%; feasible mix of returning 2000 voters and 12:22am NEP vote shares.