Gloria R. Lalumia's World Media Watch for February 4, 2008

WORLD MEDIA WATCH

Summaries are excerpted from the source articles; the featured article follows the summary section. 

1//Asia Times Online, Hong Kong
TALIBAN TAKES A HIT, BUT THE FIGHT GOES ON

With the killing of Abu Laith al-Libi this week, the Taliban have suffered their biggest loss since being ousted from power in 2001, and they are left without their finest military brain just two months before their spring offensive.  All the same, while there will undoubtedly be a short-term negative effect over the loss of the talisman commander, the Taliban have a groundswell of support in place that is unlikely to be affected in the longer term. ... NATO's commander in eastern Afghanistan, Major General David Rodriguez, recently said he did not expect the Taliban to mount a spring offensive this year as they wanted to focus their efforts on destabilizing the Pakistani government.  This is not the case. Mullah Omar made it clear by "sacking" Pakistani Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud - who wanted to concentrate on Pakistan - that all efforts would be aimed at Afghanistan.  If anything, Libi's death could help ignite the spring offensive. Asia Times Online has learned that a Taliban delegation from the Afghan province of Helmand has arrived in South Waziristan. The purpose is to build bridges between various feuding factions and unite them for the spring offensive. ... Apart from Mehsud and a few other groups, all jihadi groups in the tribal areas have now struck peace deals with Pakistani security and are regrouping for the spring offensive. ... Each of these organizations has independent weapons stockpiles, millions of dollars in funds and hundreds of fighters, in addition to secure supply lines for further funds. ... The Taliban have taken a hard hit, there is no doubt about that, as Libi was a field commander of exceptional talent. But the momentum for the Taliban's spring offensive was already in place before his death, and now it is gaining pace.                  

AN EXPANDED EXCERPT OF THIS FEATURED ARTICLE FOLLOWS THE SUMMARIES 

2//The Independent, UK
NATO ALLIES DIVIDED ON HOW TO TACKLE GROWING AFGHAN CRISIS 

The growing crisis in Afghanistan is expected to come into the open this week as Nato allies argue over troop reinforcements and the US Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, visits London to seek a new UN "super-envoy", after Kabul rejected the choice of Lord Ashdown.  A spate of reports in the past week has warned that Afghanistan risks becoming a "failed state" and that there will be a "humanitarian disaster" unless aid and military efforts are better co-ordinated.  Not only are there public disagreements in Nato over military strategy, but Afghanistan's President Hamid Karzai is ever more reluctant to co-operate with certain Western nations.  Britain is smarting after Mr Karzai vetoed Lord Ashdown's appointment and criticised the performance of UK troops in Helmand.  Remarks by the US Defence Secretary, Robert Gates, who said other Nato members were less skilled in counter-insurgency, caused fury in Britain and Canada, which is threatening to pull out its troops if reinforcements are not provided.  A demand by Mr Gates that Germany should move troops to the combat zone in southern Afghanistan was leaked last week, causing another furore.  The divisions are likely to be further exposed at a meeting of Nato defence ministers later this week in the Lithuanian capital, Vilnius, and are unlikely to be resolved ahead of the Nato summit in Romania in April.  While agreeing that the military effort needs to be part of an overall political and development strategy, many Nato members believe US policy remains over-reliant on the use of force.  

3//Gulfnews.com, United Arab Emirates
NAWAZ SHARIF WARNS OF ANARCHY IF POLLS ARE RIGGED 

Former prime minister Nawaz Sharif on Sunday said his party will contest elections even though he does not trust the Election Commission to hold free and fair elections.  "It would have been much better if the February 18 elections are not held under the current Election Commission because we do not believe in them," Sharif, chief of the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N), told reporters on his arrival at Dubai International Airport on Sunday.  He warned of anarchy in Pakistan if the elections are rigged. The opposition parities have agreed to launch an agitation in case the elections are rigged.  Clad in Pakistan's national dress -- white Shalwar Kameez with black waist coat -- Sharif waved to the crowd gathered at the airport to receive him. ... Before being driven off in a car, the two-time former prime minister said: "It seems Pervez Musharraf does not want to hold elections but he is being forced to do so."  Calling the elections a farce, he said he has no hope about the fairness of the elections and its results as the government is determined to rig the polls.  "It looks like it's going to be a useless exercise leading to chaos in the country because Musharraf is not sincere in holding impartial elections," he said. ... Sharif, whose nomination papers were rejected by the Election Commission for the February 18 polls, has already announced that he will contest by-elections to make way to the parliament.  He is now also a candidate for the premiership if his party gains a majority in the assemblies.  Regarding his visit to Dubai, he said: "I am here for personal reasons and nothing to do with politics." Sharif is expected to fly back on Monday.  His wife Kulsoom Nawaz is already in Dubai and his daughter who is married to Senator Ishaq Dar's son also lives in Dubai.    

4//RIA Novosti (Russian News & Information Agency), Russia
RUSSIA TO BUILD UP PRESENCE IN GLOBAL OCEAN - NAVY COMMANDER

Russia will build up its presence in the strategic areas of the World Ocean, the Russian navy commander said on Sunday.  Admiral Vladimir Vysotsky summed up Sunday the results of the Russian naval task force's two-month tour of duty in the Mediterranean Sea and the North Atlantic. The operation was the first large-scale Russian navy exercise in the Atlantic and the Mediterranean in 15 years.  "What is important is that we have appeared [in the Atlantic and the Mediterranean] at a scheduled time and not just that we appeared there. We'll do all we can to build up our presence where Russia has strategic interests," Vysotsky said, adding that Russia intended to carry out similar missions once every six months.  The flagship of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, the Moskva guided missile cruiser, joined up with Russian naval warships in the Mediterranean on January 18 to participate in the maneuvers in the Atlantic from January 28 to February 2. ... Over 40 aircraft of Russia's Air Force, including Tu-160 Blackjacks, Tu-95MS Bears, Tu-22M3 Backfire C strategic bombers, A-50 Mainstay airborne early warning aircraft, Il-78 Midas aerial tankers, MiG-31 Foxhound long-range interceptors and Su-27 Flanker frontline fighter aircraft participated in the drills jointly with the navy. 

5//Hindustan Times, India
BEHIND INDIA'S 'ENTRY' INTO G13

India, if British Prime Minister Gordon Brown and French President Nicolas Sarkozy are to be believed, is about to enter the G8 along with China, Brazil, South Africa and Mexico -- to turn the club of power into a G13.  India could still have a long wait to enter the UN Security Council as a permanent member given the major hurdles in the reform process -- especially the attitude of the US -- but entering the G8 looks a real possibility.  "It's a question of common sense: how can you efficiently fight climate change, eliminate poverty or deal with global commercial issues without giving a key position to the representatives of 2.5 billion inhabitants?" Sarkozy told Hindustan Times in a recent interview about the claims of the G8.  Similar sentiments were expressed by Brown during his recent visit to India. He too spoke about an expanded G8 and reiterated support for New Delhi becoming a permanent member of the Security Council.  The issue of global warming and the "fight" against it, clearly, has caught the imagination of the Western world. And India and China are prime candidates of attention given their rapidly expanding economies. 

In a few days, the Prime Ministers of Norway, Finland and Denmark, Jens Stoltenberg, Matti Vanhenen and Anders Fogh Rasmussen, as well as the President of Iceland, Olafur Ragnar Grimsson, will be in New Delhi to attend the Delhi Sustainable Development Summit.  The summit, being organised by TERI from February 7-9, will be inaugurated by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, and is likely to provide an opportunity to listen to views from some of the world's most developed economies.  Speaking in Beijing on January 15, Singh made it clear that the "rights of our people to a fair chance to improve their lot cannot be abandoned because of environmental damage caused by others who followed a path which has squandered the earth's resources".  Whether or not India and the developed world see eye-to-eye on how to tackle climate change, this issue seems to have triggered a massive change on how key members of the G8 look at India, China and Brazil.  The sense seems to be that having these big, "polluting" countries inside the G8 might help in persuading them to go along with what the developed world would now want the rest of us to do. ... It remains to be seen whether leaders like Sarkozy and Brown will put their shoulder to the wheel in pushing India's case at the Security Council. Reforming the G8 is an entirely easier proposition. 

FEATURED ARTICLE 

1//Asia Times Online, Hong Kong   Feb 2, 2008

TALIBAN TAKES A HIT, BUT THE FIGHT GOES ON

By Syed Saleem Shahzad 

KARACHI - With the killing of Abu Laith al-Libi this week, the Taliban have suffered their biggest loss since being ousted from power in 2001, and they are left without their finest military brain just two months before their spring offensive. 

All the same, while there will undoubtedly be a short-term negative effect over the loss of the talisman commander, the Taliban have a groundswell of support in place that is unlikely to be affected in the longer term. 

According to reports, Libi, 41, a Libyan, was killed on Monday in an attack by a US Predator drone in Mir Ali, a town in Pakistan's  North Waziristan tribal area near the border with Afghanistan. 

The US military placed Libi on its most wanted list in 2006, behind al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, his deputy Ayman al- Zawahiri and Taliban leader Mullah Omar. Libi had a reward of US$200,000 on his head following his involvement in the February 2007 bombing at Bagram airbase in Afghanistan during a visit by US Vice President Dick Cheney. 

The Western press uniformly describe Libi as al-Qaeda's number three, but it was not his links to the group that made his name. He was the de facto commander in chief of the Afghan resistance against the occupation forces in Afghanistan and he was the main engine behind all of the Taliban's successful attacks, especially in the east of the country. 

The strongly built Libi was a committed warrior for the cause of jihad in Afghanistan. Even Pakistani military officers acknowledged his guerrilla fighting skills and his ability to rally his men; they called him a "true mujahid". 

On several occasions, Pakistan security forces had him cornered, but each time he managed to escape. He would then send messages to army officers, saying he could have caused havoc in their ranks but he would never fight against a Muslim and preferred to escape.  

(SNIP) 

The initial reaction is that Libi's death could result in a strengthening of the Takfiri ideologues in the Waziristan tribal areas. They believe in war against any non-practicing Muslims, which includes attacks on Pakistan. Libi had acted as a restraining influence on them. But for the Taliban, the focus remains fixed on Afghanistan. 

The show goes on

NATO's commander in eastern Afghanistan, Major General David Rodriguez, recently said he did not expect the Taliban to mount a spring offensive this year as they wanted to focus their efforts on destabilizing the Pakistani government. 

This is not the case. Mullah Omar made it clear by "sacking" Pakistani Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud - who wanted to concentrate on Pakistan - that all efforts would be aimed at Afghanistan. 

If anything, Libi's death could help ignite the spring offensive. Asia Times Online has learned that a Taliban delegation from the Afghan province of Helmand has arrived in South Waziristan. The purpose is to build bridges between various feuding factions and unite them for the spring offensive. 

Pressure will even be brought to bear on Mehsud to shift to Afghanistan for a few months to end hostilities between the Pakistani security forces and his Mehsud tribe, which is under siege in South Waziristan. 

Apart from Mehsud and a few other groups, all jihadi groups in the tribal areas have now struck peace deals with Pakistani security and are regrouping for the spring offensive. 

By the end of last year, leading jihadi groups such as the Harkatul Mujahideen al-Aalmi, the Harkatul Ansaar, the Harkat-i-Jehad-i-Islami, the Ansarus Sunnah and the Ansarul Muslimoon had concentrated their human and material resources in the Waziristans in preparation for a renewed offensive in Afghanistan. 

Each of these organizations has independent weapons stockpiles, millions of dollars in funds and hundreds of fighters, in addition to secure supply lines for further funds.  

(SNIP) 

The Taliban have taken a hard hit, there is no doubt about that, as Libi was a field commander of exceptional talent. But the momentum for the Taliban's spring offensive was already in place before his death, and now it is gaining pace.  

Copyright 2008, Gloria R. Lalumia

WORLD MEDIA WATCH