Dr. J.'s Commentary: Hillary's Magic Numbers

The calendar is moving on to what was the first American labor day holiday, May 1, "May Day," founded in the 1880s in the hometown of BuzzFlash, Chicago, IL. As it does, time is winding down on the Clinton campaign to claim the Democratic nomination for President or at least prevent Barack Obama, in one way or another, from becoming president (Jonas, S., "Why Does Hillary Keep Running?" The Political Junkies.net, 4/9/08). In doing so, there are currently three magic numbers for Hillary: 178,000, 16 and 1.

The number 178,000 is the estimated number of Pennsylvania Republicans who changed their registration from Republican to Democratic since Jan. 1, 2008. (Pennsylvania, unlike Indiana, has a closed primary.) There is a widely conflicting range of estimates on how many of these folks actually voted in the Democratic primary and who they voted for. Exit polls have indicated a range of 100,000 to most of them. The estimates I have seen, based on exit polling, range for 4% to 60% for Obama. BuzzFlash Editor/Publisher Mark Karlin thinks the number is the latter. Others (including myself) are not so sure. Of course we are all guessing. One thing we do know is that Republicans who switched over to Democratic to vote for Clinton were instructed by "Operation Chaos" (see the next paragraph) to lie to exist pollsters about why crossed over and who they voted for.

The guesses as to why these folks previously registered as Republicans changed over to a Democratic registration range from them wanting to be able to vote for Obama because they like him and what he stands for, to being part of the aforementioned "Operation Chaos" for which Rush Limbaugh (sorry Keith Olbermann, no comedian he) is most likely just the front man. Who else is involved with the campaign and what their links are to the Republican Party are so far unknown. But it surely has the fingerprints of the late Lee Atwater and the very much alive Karl Rove (currently fronting as a Fox "News" Channel analyst [ho, ho, ho]) all over it.

The goal of the campaign, however, is very well known: at the most to help deliver the Democratic nomination to Clinton and at the very least make the Democratic Convention a scene of pitched political battles, up to the Limbaugh wish for riots to occur there. It has been very well known for many months now that Hillary Clinton is the desired Democratic candidate for Republicans. Since she has incredibly high negative ratings among Republican voters, and since John McCain is hardly a magnet with which to draw Republican voters, especially far-right ones, to the polls, for the Republican leadership how could she not be?

So is the problem for Obama in these primaries really that he "just doesn't connect with blue-collar voters," or that Republicans who would never vote for a Democrat, no matter who, have crossed over to vote for Clinton? And that's Clinton's problem too, as she tries to persuade the remaining uncommitted superdelegates to thwart the position of the majority of the voters in the legitimate (not Florida, not Michigan) Democratic primaries and give the nomination to her. Just how many of those 178,000 Republican cross-overs voted for her? Of those who did, how many did so because they really want her to be the Democratic nominee and would vote for her in November and how many did so as part of Operation Chaos? If a significant chunk was in the latter group (a group who, by the way apparently formed some unknown but significant chunk of her votes in Texas and Ohio), well there goes her "popular vote" argument, one she is using widely even though it has absolutely no standing according to long-standing party rules.

The next Clinton magic number is 19. You want to know why Edwards has endorsed neither candidate even though his natural choice would seem to be Obama? Yes, it could be that close, if it goes to the convention. Edwards, with his 19, count them, 19 delegates, could be the decider. Both candidates, but especially Hillary, are going to be ultra-nice to him from here on out (even though of his superdelegates who have declared, all have gone to Obama).

Finally we come to the number 1. Who is indeed the true democrat in this race (and yes, that's a purposeful lower-case "d")? It can be argued (and I do take this position in all of my relevant writings both here and on The Political Junkies.net) that the number one issue in this Presidential election, above the War on Iraq, above the economy, above health care and all the rest, is the restoration of Constitutional Democracy and the restoration of devotion to the Rule of Law that underlies our Constitution, in the Executive Branch of our government. The primary Georgite goal has been to abandon the Rule of Law and destroy the Constitution. That's what the theory of government they call the "Unitary Executive," which finds no support in any language of the Constitution (just check out Article II), is all about. If our beloved country is not to become a dictatorship somewhere down the road, this theory must be totally, and openly, rejected and discarded. That's what true democrats, but not all Democrats it would seem, stand for.

For here is Hillary Clinton declaring that she has no intention other than continuing the theory of the "Unitary Presidency." "If Iran were to attack Israel" on her watch as president, she tells us, "Iran should know" that they would face "massive retaliation," possibly "obliteration." Forget about the total irrationality of this policy. Just think, that in the absence of a mutual defense treaty negotiated with Israel and ratified by the Senate, she didn't say "I would ask Congress for the authority to obliterate Iran." She said she would just go ahead and do it. She might as well have said, "I'm the Decider. I'm the 1." If that's her approach to the Constitution, why have her in the White House? We might as well just go ahead and give George Bush a third term.

Steven Jonas, MD, MPH is a Professor of Preventive Medicine at Stony Brook University (NY), a weekly Contributing Author for the Web zine The Political Junkies.net; a Special Contributing Editor for Cyrano's Journal Online; and an invited contributor to the Web log The Daily Scare.

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