Greg Mitchell Shows How Obama Won -- and the Vital Role the New Media (Such as BuzzFlash) Played in His Victory
A BUZZFLASH INTERVIEW
Leave it to Jon Stewart to make the best funny about all this, when he asked Obama, just before November, what might happen when he stepped into the voting booth on election day - would his white half really help pull the lever for a black guy for president? Maybe a fight would break out in the voting booth. Obama said he'd been worrying about that a bit himself. And (cable) America laughed along.
-- Greg Mitchell, author, Why Obama Won
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We are big fans of Greg Mitchell, who is Editor of the publication "Editor and Publisher." Throughout the Iraq War, Mitchell used the insider publishing world magazine to tenaciously chastise the press for its lapdog coverage of the Iraq War. He has been unrelenting in exposing the cheerleader tone of corporate mainstream coverage reporting.
So, it is appropriate that he has just penned a new book that covers the amazing Obama campaign, with a special emphasis on how the new media -- such as BuzzFlash -- and the Internet laid the crucial informational and organizing groundwork for the Obama success story.
Mitchell, a regular e-mail colleague of ours, writes of his analysis and chronicle of the Obama campaign:
"My new book, Why Obama Won, is the first book exploring the 2008 campaign and its aftermath from a "progressive" perspective. The book, my ninth, focuses on the rise in Web influence, new media vs. old media, Colbert vs. Coulter, and all of the controversies and conflicts -- from Jeremiah the Preacher to Joe the Plumber. There's no book like it out there, perhaps because I wrote about the campaign almost daily from a rare position: as a blogger at two of the most popular political sites, Huffington Post and DailyKos, and as the editor of "mainstream" Editor & Publisher magazine."
BuzzFlash recently discussed "Why Obama Won: The Making of a President 2008" with Greg.
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Greg Mitchell: He recognized from the start that this would be a "change" election and not just in the desire for a new type of person in the White House, but in the way campaigns could and should be conducted. That is, a reliance on the Web: for organizing, social networking, fundraising, video ads and messages, rapid response and more. Also, one thing we shouldn't forget is the importance of his vote against the Iraq war which helped him gain traction against the two other leading candidates -- Clinton and Edwards -- who at the start had as much, if not more, "progressive" support. On most issues, Obama was viewed by many as too "moderate."
One more thing: Thank god John McCain picked Sarah Palin for veep! That drove the nail into the coffin of his campaign.
BuzzFlash: At Editor and Publisher, you specialize in how the media covers news. Of course, we are talking now about a more diverse media than ten years ago. Tell us a little about something you explore in detail in the book: the importance of the emergence of Internet sites and coverage. How did this assist Obama in terms of being an alternative to the corporate mainstream media?
Greg Mitchell: Simply put: The rules of the game have been changed forever -- by technology. It was more than the "YouTube Election," as some dubbed it, or "The Facebook Election," or "hyper-politics." It was the campaign when alternative sources of news collectively matched the "mainstream" in power and influence. This is a prime focus on my book.
I mentioned already some of the major areas that the Obama-ites exploited to take advantage of alternative approaches. I found it apt, but still amazing, that on the morning of Election Day 2008, The New York Times presented, as its banner headline on the front page, "The '08 Campaign: A Sea Change for Politics As We Know It." Adam Nagourney, the longtime political reporter, opened it with, "The 2008 race for the White House that comes to an end on Tuesday fundamentally upended the way presidential campaigns are fought in this country, a legacy that has almost been lost with all the attention being paid to the battle between Senators John McCain and Barack Obama. It has rewritten the rules on how to reach voters, raise money, organize supporters, manage the news media, track and mold public opinion, and wage -- and withstand -- political attacks, including many carried by blogs that did not exist four years ago."
So blogs, which rarely drew wide notice in 2004 and were derided by some as a silly, passing fancy, now earned a place in the second paragraph of the top Times story on Election Day 2008. But Obama's own Web sites and social networking were even more important.
BuzzFlash: The Internet is also a great organizing tool, as Howard Dean's pre-primary campaign proved in 2004. How did the Obama campaign team build upon the Internet organizing innovations of the Dean campaign?
Greg Mitchell: Let's be clear: Much of the groundwork was built or tested by the Deaniacs. But it was small stuff compared to the Obama efforts. Just look at video: The real "turning point" with that was not in 2004 but 2006 with the "macaca" George Allen moment and wider use of YouTube by candidates and their supporters.
Consider one specific case: I would argue that videos featuring Bill, not Hillary Clinton, led to the true turning point in the primary race, when on three separate occasions he was caught making what some took to be "racial" remarks and/or losing his temper with voters or reporters -- all in informal settings captured by amateurs or small town reporters and then beamed to millions. Countless Democrats, and particularly African-Americans, who had always revered the Clintons, switched to Obama in the space of a week or two. Even if they still liked Hill they did not want another four or eight years of Bill. Obama won eleven primaries in a row and the race was all but over.
In the autumn, the turning point for the campaign might have come when McCain's gamble, picking Sarah Palin as his running mate, was undermined by the CBS interview with her by Katie Couric and the Saturday Night Live parodies starring Tina Fey. Yes, they came from the mainstream -- but they gained tens of millions of additional viewers online in the days that followed. It was the virality that was key.
Also, Palin was hurt from the very start by the great reporting on her background by her home state paper, the Anchorage Daily News - which, I trust, hardly anyone in the lower 48 has ever held in their hands but millions read the reports avidly online, and they quickly helped forge the mass media narrative. All of the above is highlighted in my book.
BuzzFlash: Speaking of the Internet, was the McCain campaign like a dinosaur trying to order a meal in Silicon Valley, or what, when it came to the Internet?
Greg Mitchell: Yeah, it was pretty lame, especially when he had to defend not really knowing how to send email, while Obama was showcasing his Blackberry everywhere. Then there was the contrast between the millions of Obama's "Facebook friends" and McCain's paltry number. So it was like the cool uncle vs. Geezer Gramps.
BuzzFlash: What was the importance of Obama's Philadelphia speech on race? It was a risky, but ultimately brilliant and moving strategy. To us, it seemed the turning point in an election with so many twists and turns. But it showed that Obama could re-frame an issue pursuasively and turn a profound albatross (Rev. Wright) into an assertion of leadership. What are your thoughts?
Greg Mitchell: I'm not really so sure of that prime importance, although it was certainly significant. The mainstream media loved it and it will loom large in the history books. But if you look at the context, much of the attacks on him continued afterward and we should never forget that after taking the lead in delegates a year ago he ran neck-and-neck with Hillary the rest of the way. The "race" keys for him, beyond that speech, were 1) African-Americans abandoning Hillary largely due to Bill, and 2) whites getting more comfortable with Obama in the fall, which I don't think had much to do with their response to his Philly speech many months before.
And Rev. Wright did him a big favor with his embarrassing performance at the Press Club in D.C. which enabled Obama to give him a swift, if belated, boot off stage.
BuzzFlash: The mainstream media talked a lot about race -- and Obama is self-identified as an African American. But he also skillfully used his bi-racial background in the campaign, emphasizing his white ancestry. BuzzFlash believes, as Obama said, that in his blood he carries a little microcosm of America. But there's no question that he skillfully used both his black and white heritage to his political advantage. Do you think that the Clinton campaign, particularly Bill Clinton, misjudged Obama's adeptness at handling the race issue?
Greg Mitchell: Yes, as I mentioned earlier, they did, and Bill, particularly, seemed to assume that Hill was entitled to the black vote. I agree that the Obama team handled the race issue well, not going overboard in stressing his "whiteness." In fact, until near the end, I thought they made too little of that half of his background, and then we saw more pictures of his mother as time went on. I also think blacks came, at the same time, to see him as more "black," as they got to know his wife better (in contrast to, say, Tiger Woods and his white wife).
Leave it to Jon Stewart to make the best funny about all this, when he asked Obama, just before November, what might happen when he stepped into the voting booth on election day - would his white half really help pull the lever for a black guy for president? Maybe a fight would break out in the voting booth. Obama said he'd been worrying about that a bit himself. And (cable) America laughed along.
BuzzFlash: Let's talk about style and age for a moment. While the mainstream press generally focused on Obama competing to become the first African-American President, wasn't this also a key generational change, as we saw in the 1960 Kennedy-Nixon campaign (although Nixon came back to haunt us.) The WW II and post WW II generations are now in their senior years -- or fast approaching them. Isn't Obama a generationally different candidate, unburdened by the political outlook of WW II and America's old industrial economy?
Greg Mitchell: That's largely true, but also overly optimistic, probably. Obama seemed most "new generation" in his use of new electronic tools in his campaign. But do policies that he has proposed - or advisers he has chosen - really break with what you call the old "political outlook" and "old industrial economy"?
Yes, calling for "change" rang a bell with new generations, but now what happens? Look at how he has surrounded himself with the same old economic advisers that got us into the mess we are now in - and others from the troubling lawmaker/lobbyist axis, such as the now-departed Tom Daschle. Now Joe Biden, never a dove, is going around detailing vaguely hawkish foreign policy stands. Obama promises to send 30,000 more troops to Afghanistan-and refused to condemn the over-the-top Israeli attack on Gaza. What could be more "old" generation than that?
I agree that Obama is "different" and I don't minimize what he is up against at all, but for now I would be more cautious in what that really means in terms of "new generation." But hey, JFK has been overhyped, too.
BuzzFlash: Let's talk about discipline in the Obama campaign. While the Clinton and McCain campaigns went through a bit of turmoil, Obama stuck with his key people and themes for more than two years. What does that sort of discipline and focus reveal about Obama?
Greg Mitchell: He's a smart guy who is highly focused and disciplined and demands the same from his aides. However, we will see how that plays out as somewhat disgruntled people on his team grow tempted to "leak" - like all of their predecessors.
BuzzFlash: But he also has the ability to self-correct and adapt without losing focus. Toward the end of the campaign, as the economy cratered and McCain fumbled on the Wall Street issue, Obama started rolling out a populist side that sounded like Hillary Clinton as she campaigned in the Ohio and Pennsylvania primaries.
Greg Mitchell: Every Democrat does that in the homestretch, whether it was Mondale, Clinton, or Gore. It's just bringing home the base. It started with Obama even before that, highlighting Biden's background in picking him - the "Scranton" factor. He became Joe "Six-Pack" Biden. I'm sure the late populism did help bring some white working-class votes home. McCain tried to do the same thing in embracing Joe the Plumber - which proved laughable. Even Palin was pictured as blue-collar, which also didn't quite work. My book focuses a lot on the Palin disaster and how it unfolded.
BuzzFlash: Finally, there's the bipartisanship. I and most BuzzFlash readers get frustrated with Obama's outreach to his opposition and his use of resources and rhetoric to adopt a "Team of Rivals" approach. But just when we are about to really get frustrated, Obama shows the backside of his hand as he did on the so-called "stimulus package." It's as if he's saying: "I tried playing nice and seeing if we work together on behalf of the country in a civil and friendly fashion, but don't let that lead you to mistake me for being naive. You've had your chance, now I've got a few things to get off my chest and watch out for incoming fire because here it comes."
Is this a reflection of Obama's personality or his political style, or both?
Greg Mitchell: I'm sure he is making it up as he goes along. I think he has not quite adapted to -- even though he recognizes -- the true economic crisis we are in. The economic crisis is like just after 9/11 except in this case the opposition party is not joining hands with him to "save the country." Normally, as a new prez, what he did in reaching out would have been politically astute -- but no other president in recent times has taken office in such a crisis. He followed what he had promised to do in the campaign, when in reality he needed to play hardball as soon as it became clear that he was going to get NO votes from the other side on his stimulus plan. His mistake was waiting a week or more to get heated up.
So let's hope he now stays "hot."
BuzzFlash interview conducted by Mark Karlin.
Resources:
Why Obama Won: The Making of a President 2008
A BUZZFLASH INTERVIEW
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And the Main Stream Media Denied Obama's Landslide
The mainstream media is complicit in covering up the extent of Obama's landslide victory, just like they covered up the 2004 stolen election.
The proof that massive Election Fraud permeated both elections is found in the 2004 and 2008 National Exit Poll. In 2004, they used an impossible Bush/Gore returning voter mix (43/37%) and in 2008 a Bush/Kerry (46/37%)mix. In order to match the recorded vote, there had to be millions more returning Bush voters than were alive to vote.
Prove it by simple arithmetic:
Start with the prior election recorded vote. Deduct the number who died and assume a feasible 95-97% turnout of those still living. Compare the result to the number implied by the Final NEP. You will find that the NEP indicates there were 5-7 million phantom Bush voters.
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionAnalysisLinks.htm
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/MediaElectionFraud.htm
Obama won the official popular vote by 69.5-59.9m, a 9.5m vote margin. According to the National Exit Poll, Democrats won new voters by 14% (1992-2004). Obama won new voters by 43% in 2008.
Pre-election registered voter (RV) polls sample new voters; likely voter (LV polls) don't. The final 2 RV polls had Obama leading by 53.5-41.
After undecided voters are allocated (UVA), Obama leads by 56.8-41.7%. The average LV Nov. poll had Obama leading by 50-43 (53.5-45.0 after UVA).
LV polls understated Obama’s vote since they did not sample newly registered voters. The RCP site lists 2004/2008 LV polls but not Final RV polls. The polls do not allocate (UVA) undecided voters. According to pollsters Zogby, Gallup and Harris, 70-90% broke for the challengers: Obama and Kerry.
In order to match the 52.9-45.6% recorded vote share, the Final National Exit Poll (NEP) had to inflate the number of returning Bush 2004 voters and indicated a 46/37% Bush/Kerry returning voter split. But that means there were 12m more returning Bush than Kerry voters – and Bush won the official vote (not the True vote) by just 3 million. Did you read about this in the NY Times or see it on MSNBC or CNN or other Political Web sites?
According to the Final NEP, 5.2m (4%) of the 2008 electorate were returning 2004 third- party voters. But there were only 1.2m third-party voters in 2004. It’s 2006 all over again – the number of third-party voters was inflated from 1% to 4%. Why did the NEP do it? We know they had to match the recorded vote – but why do it in such a ridiculous, incriminating way?
Well, they got away with inflating third-party vote in the 2006 midterms and no one questioned it then. But why take a chance that it would be noticed this time? The reason was not just because they knew it would not be questioned. They had to provide cover for the pre-election likely voter (LV) polls, so they lowered the Final NEP new voter percentage mix from 16% to 13%. Otherwise, it would indicate that there were 21m new voters, not 17m. More new voters meant a bigger Obama margin. The LV polls indicated Obama was leading by 7% before undecided voters were allocated (9% after UVA); the RV polls indicated a 13% spread (16% after UVA).
Now the MSM wants us to believe that Obama has 53% (which matches the LV polls). The MSM doesn’t mention that RV polls had him leading by double the LV margins.
Take a look at the RealClearPolitics.com (RCP). The last RV poll listed was from Ipsos on 10/13. RCP does not list the final Nov. 2 RV tracking polls from Gallip and ABC/WP which show an Obama 13% margin – before UVA.
The combination of pre-election LV polls (with UVA) and 71% of new voters (from the NEP) gives the RV 57% poll result. Did you read about this in the NY Times or see it on MSNBC or CNN or other Political Web sites?
Why did RCP fail to list these 4 RV polls?
Poll Date Obama-McCain Spread
Gallup 11/02 53-40 +13
ABC/WP 11/02 54-41 +13
Pew 10/26 52-36 +16
NBC 10/20 52-42 +10
This is why the media does not discuss RV polls and lists only LV polls:
1) The National Exit Poll must match the official recorded vote (and the LV polls) so the pollsters
2) had to reduce the percentage of new voters in the 2008 NEP because they
3) could not increase the number of returning Bush voters by 3% (it was already an impossible 46%).
4) Therefore, the exit pollsters had to raise the number of returning other third-party voters by 3%.
2008 Primaries
Clinton was expected to win the Iowa caucuses, but lost to Obama and Edwards. In NH, Obama was favored in all pre-election polls by 6-10%. He was leading in the preliminary exit polls according to MSNBC. If Hillary lost NH, she would be out of the running. But Hillary miraculously won the primary. She won machine-count districts by the same percentage that Obama did in hand-counted paper ballot districts. Approximately 80% of NH votes were machine-counted.
Just before the Ohio and Texas primaries, Rush Limbaugh promoted Operation Chaos. The goal: to get Republicans to cross over and vote for Hillary and deny Obama the nomination. It almost worked. She barely won Indiana and Texas but lost the Texas caucuses.
Clinton did better in virtually all the state primaries (where the votes were machine-counted) than she did in the exit polls. And she lost all state caucuses (where the votes were head-counted). Just a coincidence? Did you read about this in the NY Times or see it on MSNBC or CNN or other Political Web sites?