Who might run if there is a special election for Barack Obama's Senate seat

BE-ELECTED
by Chad Rubel

So we might have a special election for Barack Obama's Senate seat. At least there is a clamor for one. It would make more sense just to impeach Rod Blagojevich, something the General Assembly also seems eager to do.

But there is a motivation to change the method for the way a replacement is selected, even if it costs at least $12 million, leaves Obama's seat unfilled beyond January 6, and deprives Lt. Gov. Pat Quinn of the power to make a choice.

The Illinois General Assembly will meet on December 15 to rectify this issue. What they are expected to accomplish in 22 days (including Christmas and New Years) is the following: impeach the governor, install the new governor (Quinn), pass legislation to have a special election, have Quinn sign it, run a primary, and run an overall election, have the results certified, and have that person sworn in on January 6.

It would make more sense just to impeach the governor, install the new governor, and have him make the pick. Problem solved. But there are centrist and mainstream Democrats who don't want Quinn to have the responsibility because they think he is too far to the left.

So if we have this special election: whom will we see? Well, many of the prominent names on the Democratic side are the logical picks: Reps. Jesse Jackson, Jr., Jan Schakowsky, Danny Davis, and Luis Gutierrez. Picks such as Emil Jones aren't as likely, since they would accept an appointment but wouldn't likely run in an election.

The beauty of a special election is that House members can run for a Senate slot without the fear of giving up their House seat. So this list could expand.

Still, we need to know who Senate Candidate #5 is, based on the transcripts of what the government has released in the charges against Rod Blagojevich. Assuming we find out soon whom that is, that candidate would have a major strike, whether Quinn gets the power to appoint a replacement or if there is a special election.

Quinn and Attorney General Lisa Madigan are two people you won't really hear as candidates. Quinn has a chance to be governor, and wants to do so. Madigan has made it absolutely clear that she intends to stay in her role as attorney general, and besides, if you believe she will run for governor in 2010, going to the Senate won't help that goal.

For the Republicans, Judy Baar Topinka is the most logical choice. She is the last GOP statewide position holder (Treasurer), a former gubernatorial candidate, and has the most statewide recognition among the GOP. The only reason she wouldn't run is if she really wants to be governor in 2010. And with Blagojevich out of the picture, you could see potentially a Madigan-Topinka gubernatorial battle between two women in a state that has never elected a female governor.

Ray LaHood is a serious name to consider. LaHood has been in the U.S. House since 1995 and is retiring from the House. LaHood might only want the seat for the two-year period, and would have more seniority than other incoming senators. Mark Kirk, current rep from the 10th Congressional District, might throw his hat into the ring. Kirk is moderate enough to win in Chicago's far northern suburbs, and again, without risk to his seat, might try to gain some statewide recognition.

DuPage County State's Attorney Joe Burkett would be one of the more conservative choices. Burkett does have some statewide recognition, losing races to Attorney General Lisa Madigan and as the Lieutenant Governor candidate for Topinka (against Blagojevich in 2006).

Perennial candidate Jim Oberweis, who has lost twice in 2008 to Rep. Bill Foster, will be interested in losing, er, being in a third race this year. Other possibilities include Rep. Peter Roskam and state senator Chris Lauzen.

Then there are caretaker candidates aplenty on the GOP side, including former governors Jim Edgar and Jim Thompson. Edgar turned down a chance to run for the Senate in 2004 for the seat that Barack Obama won. Thompson and Edgar, if they were interested, likely wouldn't run for re-election.

Given the tight time period, if Illinois decides to go with a special election complete with a primary, it's clear that the seat won't be filled when the new Congress convenes on January 6, 2009. Politics in Illinois moves at a snail's pace under normal circumstances. This isn't normal.

And a special election gives the GOP in the state, a mostly dormant party at the moment, a chance at new life and momentum toward this seat as well as 2010, when openings for governor, attorney general (probably), and U.S. Senator will be pretty much wide open. Hopefully, the impeachment and subsequent promotion for Pat Quinn will give the seat a quick and honest process. Otherwise, the special election kicks in, and unfortunately for the Democrats, anything can happen.