How long are the coattails? How many Senate seats will the Democrats take on Nov. 4?

BE-ELECTED
by Chad Rubel

We've spent a lot of time on the presidential race. And a lot of time on Sarah Palin. I know I would have written far fewer pieces on Joe Lieberman or Lindsey Graham. But there are plenty of other races going on: House and Senate races galore.

Unfortunately, due to the structure of House districts, close races are plenty rare, unless of course, you screw up mightily.

Three races fitting that description are Michele Bachmann (R-MN), Robin Hayes (R-NC), and Tim Mahoney (D-FL). That is good news for Elwyn Tinklenberg, Larry Kissell, and Tom Rooney, respectively.

Kissell almost beat Hayes in 2006, and the Republicans want Mahoney out to regain Mark Foley's old seat. Bachmann is running for re-election for the first time, a prime time to oust any incumbent.

And CQ Politics profiles some lesser known races where Democrats have better odds.

But the excitement comes from the Senate. Serving the whole state and running every six years, Senate seats are more of an opportunity to change things around.

At least, most of the time. There are a number of Senate seats that aren't up for dispute.

Did you know that Lamar Alexander (R-TN), John Barrasso (R-WY), Max Baucus (D-MT), Joe Biden (D-DE), Thad Cochran (R-MS), John Cornyn (R-TX), Dick Durbin (D-IL), Michael Enzi (R-WY), Lindsey Graham (R-SC), Tom Harkin (D-IA), James Inhofe (R-OK), John Kerry (D-MA), Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ), Carl Levin (D-MI), Mark Pryor (D-AR), Jack Reed (D-RI), Pat Roberts (R-KS), Jay Rockefeller (D-WV), and Jeff Sessions (R-AL) are running for re-election in the U.S. Senate.

Durbin is running so quietly here in Illinois that I couldn't honestly name his opponent.

Those races aren't likely to see an upset. But there are still plenty of races to consider.

Now that the Republicans are out of power, expected retirements litter the landscape: Wayne Allard (R-CO), Larry Craig (R-ID), Pete Domenici (R-NM), Chuck Hagel (R-NE), and John Warner (R-VA). Of these five seats, the Democrats have a very good chance of winning three of them, a rather amazing result.   

There are two Democratic seats that on paper would seem to be open for grabs: Tim Johnson (D-SD) and Mary Landrieu (D-LA). After all, South Dakota Senate races have been close recently. Sen. John Thune (R-SD) edged Tom Daschle by 4,508 votes in 2004, and Johnson beat Thune in 2002 by 524 votes.

And Landrieu had a target on her back, and there was speculation that the loss of Democrats from Louisiana (thanks to FEMA and Bush incompetence on Hurricane Katrina) would help the Republicans in the Senate just like it helped Bobby Jindal defeat Kathleen Blanco for governor.

But what we've heard is that Johnson and Landrieu are expected to win in November.

The current 49-49-2 setting will certainly flip for the Democrats next month. But how many seats will they win? And can they get to a filibuster-proof 60 seats?

The 49 Democratic senators and the two independents (yes, Joe Lieberman counts at the moment) leaves the Democrats 9 seats short. If they win 3 of the retired seats (Virginia, New Mexico, and Colorado), the Democrats need to defeat 6 of these 9 incumbents:

Saxby Chambliss (R-GA), Norm Coleman (R-MN), Susan Collins (R-ME), Elizabeth Dole (R-NC), Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Gordon Smith (R-OR), Ted Stevens (R-AK), John Sununu (R-NH), and Roger Wicker (R-MS).

Wicker is running as the interim senator for Trent Lott's seat, giving Mississippi two Senate races in 2008. Former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove has as good a shot as any Democrat we have seen in some time.

Coleman is running against Al Franken and Dean Barkley for Paul Wellstone's old seat. Dole has a tough battle with Kay Hagan. Sununu is in a heated rematch with Jeanne Shaheen. Stevens, waiting to see if he going to jail, has a strong opponent in Mark Begich. Jeff Merkley is running strong after Smith's seat. Chambliss, Collins, and McConnell would seem to have the easier roads, though Collins has a tough opponent in Tom Allen.

Some of these races may come down to whether Barack Obama has coattails or whether Senate candidates such as Mark Warner (VA) and Kay Hagan (NC) have coattails themselves.

But you might live in a state where one of these exciting races is going on. Give us your perspective. Which one of these 9 major seats do you see flipping? Is there an upset we might not know about? Tell us what you think.

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