John McCain almost became VP in 1996, so he should have known better than to pick Palin

Picking a VP candidate is tough when you don't have a history with the process. Yet Barack Obama made a solid choice, going with Joe Biden.

And you would think vice presidents who try to become president have an advantage since they understand the process. However, this would be difficult given the last two people who tried and who they picked: Dan Quayle and Joe Lieberman.

Bob Dole has a distinction no person can match: He has been in both slots in a president/vice president slate on a major party ticket, yet hasn't won either time.

John McCain, on so many levels in 2008, reminds me of Bob Dole in 1996: seasoned party member, "it's my turn" mentality, older and clueless about the world.

But McCain could have been in the same position Dole literally was: if only Dole had picked him to be his running mate in 1996. Yet McCain was on the short list for vice president in 1996.

In 1996, McCain was 60, a contrast to Dole's 73 (yes, Dole was even older then than McCain is now). True, the Keating Five was fresher in people's minds. But the "maverick" image would also have been fresher. Dole ended up going with Jack Kemp, and McCain ran for president 4 years later.

Another eerie coincidence: Dole got the nomination 8 years later after his first serious run for president, just like McCain.

So John McCain had some idea of the VP selection process. After all, he sat in 1996 where Joseph Lieberman was or Tom Ridge, Tim Pawlenty, or even Mitt Romney in 2008.

We may not know if McCain was on a list for George W. Bush's running mate in 2000. After all, McCain was the only main contender for the Republican nomination. Still in Barton Gellman's latest book "Angler" on the wrath of Dick Cheney, it probably was best that McCain wasn't on the list. First of all, Cheney knew he would pick himself (what were the odds on that?), and second, Cheney ran the people on the list through the wringer

According to Gellman, Cheney asked Bill Frist, Tom Ridge, and John Kasich to give him direct access to their FBI files and to sign waivers of privacy for all health records without exception. Oh, and he asked the contenders whether there was any potential episodes subject to blackmail. Somehow, Cheney never filled out his own questionnaire.

Compared to all of that mess, McCain's process seemed rather simple: have a few names he really wanted, and have them leaked to the press shortly before the announcement, which came at the last possible moment. Then pick someone he has communicated with twice, only one of those times in person, and put that person on the ticket.

Presidential historians, pundits, and fans of the process try and study the vice presidential selection process as an indicator of presidential leadership.

Bill Clinton made a bold choice in 1992. A surprising pick given that the selection was so young, and not all that well-known. But Al Gore had a lot of experience at a relatively young age, and proved to be one of the all-time best vice presidents. And the selection of Gore played well to Clinton's leadership.

Whether you like Sarah Palin or not, her selection was not well thought out. Bristol Palin's apparent pregnancy in itself wasn't an issue. Palin's relative inexperience isn't an issue - after all, the country allowed Dan Quayle to be VP. But what we have seen in her background, the fact that the McCain campaign itself is trying to subterfuge an ongoing investigation (that was approved by Alaskan Republicans) is proof positive that McCain isn't qualified to be president.

And given McCain's history with running for president and vice president, he really should have known better.