Why the vice presidential pick matters, even on a losing ticket

Yes, we will finally know soon whom Barack Obama and even John McCain will pick for vice president. The rabid political followers are anxious to find out whom these two have picked, and the casual follower is, at least, curious. If the ticket wins, that person becomes Vice President of the United States, a heartbeat away from the Oval Office, and in the driver's seat for the party nomination in 2012 or 2016.

But if the ticket loses, there are long-term implications for these picks.

For the person John McCain picks if the Republicans lose:

-- this person becomes the de facto leader of the Republican Party. We all saw the group the Republicans assembled for president. Mike Huckabee came out of nowhere to finish third. Rudy Giuliani had huge name recognition and couldn't turn that into anything substantial.

-- this person also has name recognition for 2012, and becomes the most well-known figure of the Republican Party. Yes, it's possible that this person could be associated with a losing ticket, but if the performance goes well, that person has an edge in four years.

-- If this person has a distinct advantage (e.g., being pro-choice), it could take the Republican Party in a new, slightly kinder direction. If this person is a harsh, conservative bulldog, the Party, sad as it is to believe, the Party could have a harsher tone than now.

-- And since the Republicans like clean, non-controversial, borderline "crowning" ceremony for a primary, this person has a very good shot at taking on President Obama in 2012.

For the person Barack Obama picks if the Democrats lose:

-- this person becomes the de facto leader of the Democratic Party on one level. The chances of Obama running again aren't likely, and even though Sen. Hillary Clinton would be a prominent figure in the 2012 primary, this person has name recognition as well.

-- Since John Edwards is not likely to run, and if this person is a white male, there will be a distinct advantage over other white males who might jump in for 2012.

-- this person, if shaped in the impression of Obama, can carry on that new direction for the Democratic Party that could improve the party's chances in 2012.

-- And since the Democrats like messy, controversial primaries, this person has a very good head start in the fight to take on President McCain or Vice President [fill in name here] in 2012.

And if you think it doesn't matter, even in a losing cause, who the pick is, look at how much legitimacy Joe Lieberman got when Al Gore picked him in 2000. Lieberman had a lead in the polls in 2003, due to name recognition, when he ran for president. And the fact that Lieberman, the VP nominee for the Democratic Party in 2000, is speaking at the Republican National Convention in 2008, means you should be really careful who you pick for your running mate. When Lieberman dies, his obituary will start out with the fact that he was Al Gore's running mate, something we have been ashamed of since 2000.