To intimidate the MSM, Barack Obama needs a landslide Electoral College victory

TruthIsAll

How many votes were recorded in 2004?

122.3 million

Who voted in 2004?

Two groups: 1) Did Not Vote in 2000 (DNV)

2) Voted in 2000 (Gore, Bush, Nader/other)

What can we say about Election 2000?

There were 105.4 million recorded votes. Gore won the popular vote by 540,000.

1) Some died before the 2004 election.

2) Some did not return to vote in 2004.

Can we estimate how many Election 2000 voters died?

About 5.4 million, assuming annual voter mortality was 1.25%.

There were 100m still living in 2004.

Can we estimate how many of them voted in 2004?

Yes, about 95% or 95 million.

Doesn’t that mean that there were 27 million new voters?

Your math is correct.

Do we know how they voted?

DNV (27m new voters) were overwhelmingly for Kerry by 3-2.

Nader/others (3.5m) were overwhelmingly for Kerry by better than 3-1.

What about Gore 2000 voters?

They knew they were robbed in 2000.

What about Bush 2000 voters?

They gave him a higher rating than his 48% national approval.

Kerry must have won the election because

a) returning Gore voters outnumbered returning Bush voters;

b) Nader/other and new voters were solid for Kerry.

Do you agree?

Not necessarily.

But according to the National Exit poll, 10% of Bush voters were for Kerry and 8% of Gore voters were for Bush.

And Kerry won the NEP by 51-48%. Doesn’t that confirm the obvious?

Not really. That was based on the preliminary NEP (13047 respondents).

Bush won the Final NEP (13660 respondents) by 51-48%.

The preliminary exit poll was biased in favor of Kerry.

Bush voters were less likely to be interviewed than Kerry voters.

But the final NEP indicated that 43% of 2004 voters were Bush 2000 voters and only 37% were Gore voters.

Doesn’t that refute the reluctant Bush responder theory?

Not necessarily. Gore voters misspoke when they said they voted for Bush. They forgot they voted for Gore and/or wanted to identify with Bush.

But wasn’t the Final NEP forced to match the recorded vote?

Yes, that is always the case.

But the Final NEP was mathematically impossible.

How could 43% (52.6m) of the 122.3m who voted in 2004 have been Bush 2000 voters?

Only 50.5m voted for him in 2000. Since 2.5m died and 2.5m did not vote in 2004, only 45.5m could have voted in 2004.

Therefore, the Final NEP was off by approximately 7m votes. How do you explain that?

Once again: Gore voters misspoke. They forgot they voted for Gore and/or wanted to identify with Bush.

But what about the aggregate of 51 unadjusted state exit polls? Kerry was a 52-47% winner.

Exit polls are not accurate.

Bush was a war president even though 9/11 happened on his watch.

So Gore voters forgave Bush for stealing the 2000 election.

What about the Census finding that 125.7m votes were cast, as opposed to the 122.3m recorded?

Of 3.4m uncounted votes, weren’t the vast majority in minority Democratic districts?

Yes, that is true. But even if they were counted, it would have only reduced Bush’s margin from 3.0m to 1.5m.

How do you explain Kerry winning the final 5 million (absentee, provisional) votes by 53-44%?

What does that prove? Bush won the first 117m by 51-48%.

Five million is not a large enough sample size to draw any conclusions

But what if the recorded vote was fraudulent?

The 2004 election has never been mentioned in the media as being fraudulent.

But the Final NEP is often mentioned. And since the Final NEP was matched to the recorded vote, it has to be correct.

Otherwise the media or the Democrats would have called for a full investigation by now.

I’m surprised that you would even suggest that Bush would steal the election.

Just look at his record in office. Does it even remotely suggest that he would try to steal it?

That possibility is gone, unless our VP is a favorite of the Left. His consideration of someone like Bayh especially, probably spells a bigger loss of support.

Obama's new advisors, did not appreciate what he had- when he had it. The Left loved him and the Independents and Right respected his boldness and honesty. Now, for every step to the Right he moves he loses two votes from the Left, and doesn't seem to care.
Why, I'm not sure. He could be pulling the same thing Hillary tried -just writing off the Left and doing whatever it takes to draw in replacement voters.
Had he just stuck to the Obama we all thought we knew, he'd have that landslide not only for himself but for our pathetic whining Democrat 'leaders' in Congress.

Without a landslide, you'll be hearing 4 more years of Democratic sniveling -and my bigger fear is that such poor behavior ends the Democratic party majority once and for all.

No one will believe them ever again.

To choose not to learn about what you don't know is to choose to be more stupid than you were.