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Breaking down the House races: Can the Democrats grab at least 30 more seats?

Submitted by Chad on Thu, 08/07/2008 - 9:38am.

Yesterday, we broke down the Senate races, and today, we are going to focus on the House. This is a much tougher task, since all 435 seats are open. Oh, who are we kidding. Most House races are in such gerrymandered districts that, Republican or Democratic, those seats are staying in the same party.

One thing Republicans and Democrats can agree on (not the politicians themselves but the actual voters) is that Congressional districts should be drawn up in a neutral manner so races would be more competitive.

Still, there are a lot of races up for grabs. CQPolitics.com does a great job of analyzing the tedious practice of the races, close or not, in the House. These are the races they are spotlighting.

Of those in the spotlight, Republicans are incumbents in 59 races and Democrats make up the incumbent in 36 races. Even if Republicans retain most of their seats, the tough races force the Republicans to spend money they might not have or would rather spend somewhere else.

There are a significant number of open seats, the vast majority of which are Republicans, 20 Republicans versus 3 Democrats. The Democrats' list includes Tom Allen (ME-1), who is running for Susan Collins' Senate seat.

Prominent Republicans who are retiring from the House include Rick Renzi (AZ-1), Jerry Weller (IL-11), Ray LaHood (IL-18), Heather A. Wilson (NM-1), Steve Pearce (NM-2), Vito J. Fossella (NY-13), Thomas M. Reynolds (NY-26), Deborah Pryce (OH-15), and Thomas M. Davis III (VA-11). Wayne T. Gilchrest (MD-1) was the incumbent but lost in the Republican primary to Andy Harris.

Possible targets (i.e., people progressives would love to see lose) in the spotlight include Don Young (AK-at large) as well as Lincoln Diaz-Balart (Fl-21) and Mario Diaz-Balart (FL-25).

Here in Illinois, we have quite a few Republican seats that could turn Democratic. Besides the open seats in the 11th District and the 18th District, possible turnovers include Peter Roskam (IL-6), Mark Kirk (IL-10), and Judy Biggert  (IL-13). If Kirk loses his seat, it's a sign of something big for the Democrats.

But covering 435 races is quite difficult. But you can help. Is there a race in your area where you are excited? Perhaps there is a fresh Democrat in your district who the Republicans are gunning for, such as Tim Mahoney (FL-16), who won Mark Foley's seat.

Or is there a race where if the Democratic Party nominee wins in that district, then the Democrats will do even better than expected. Help us educate the country about your area.

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Morgenthaler a Huge Disappointment

Submitted by ILPOL86 on Fri, 08/08/2008 - 12:13am.
I don't think we have a shot any more at Roskam's seat turning over. Jill Morgenthaler has been virtually non-existent as a candidate, and a poll just came out showing her thirty points down - Roskam 59, Morgenthaler 29. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/politics_nation/2008/08/il_06_roskam_up_huge.html She comes out of the Blagojevich administration so you would think she could at least raise money, but I guess with Gov. Blagojevich's approval ratings approaching single digits in Illinois and one of his major fundraisers in prison, that dries up her money.
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Congressional Democrats

Submitted by ptarmigan06 on Thu, 08/07/2008 - 1:23pm.
Here in CA04 Doolittle will resign at the end of this term...thank god! The 6/08 Republican primary was particularly nasty between 2 carpetbagging perpetual CA candidates. McClintock, from southern CA, the worst of the 2, won that contest. YEA! This was GREAT news for Charlie Brown! And music to the ears of those of us who have been working to get Charlie elected for almost 3 years. Charlie came within 3 percentage points of Doolittle in 2006, the Green Party candidate got 4%. Up here, in the most red district in the state, the 2006 smears started early against Charlie. They included his long membership in ACLU...you know, those people who defend child molesters, and also his attendance at an anti war rally with... OMG!!...Cindy Sheehan and Sean Penn. Dems in the area continue to be really charged up. We continue to work hard at phone banks, tabling, and voter registration canvasses throughout CA04. We are really hoping that the Republicans for Charlie Brown will be joining us to get Charlie to Congress. GO CHARLIE!!!!
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CA03

Submitted by spiderman on Sat, 08/09/2008 - 9:46am.
Just a few miles south the good people of CA03 are fighting to rid itself of long time carpetbagging Dan Lungren. The Sacramento Bee reported 8/8/08 on "long-shot" Dr. Bill Durston's quest to defeat the perennial politician Lungren. Durston is an emergency room physician and decorated Vietnam Marine veteran. He is also a peace activist that crusades against the way Bush is conducting his war on terror. While this is Durston's second bid for election, this time the grass roots campaign has a much stronger support base. The people of the third are also very much fed up with Lungren's lock step rubber stamp Bush ideals. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has yet to give Durston any financial support, while voter registration efforts in Sacramento County have risen Democrat's numbers to less than four percentage points behind the Republicans. This margin is smaller than that of the race between (D)Jerry McNearney's in the 11th CD in 2006 when he ousted (R) Richard Pombo after being defeated handily in 2004. History, hopefully will do what it does best and repeat itself this election cycle. The DCCC and others can help assure this by supporting Durston's campaign.
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Nobody Else Has Said it Yet, So I Guess I'll Be First

Submitted by drprodny on Thu, 08/07/2008 - 11:36am.
IF the best the Dems can give us are more Nancy P'Lousy and Spineless Hoyer DLC/Blue Dog clones, why bother?

Picking up more Dem seats is MUCH less important than picking up a lot of Progressive seats - people who will force President Obama to Punish the Traitors on the Right, slap some respect into the "Good Germans" of Muddle Ammurika who made the Bush Nazis possible (b/c strength is the only language THEY understand!), bring jobs home, support unions, get us on track w/true alternative energy sources not already being gobbled up by "Swift Boat" Pickens, The Man Who Sold the Wind - and stop and reverse the rape of the Constitution Bush/Cheney started by impeaching blatantly and dangerously partisan "judges" like Alito, Roberts, Thomas and Scalia, and all the little Limbaugh-Lite dittoheads in robes beneath them!
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