Breaking down the Senate races: Can the Democrats make it to 60 seats?

There is the big giant presidential race: Obama and McCain, plus Barr, McKinney, and Nader among others.

But as true political junkies, there are some great House and Senate races to consider in this cycle. And so many questions to consider. Will Republicans win back House seats they lost due to scandal (e.g., Mark Foley) in 2006? Will Obama be that much of a boost to House and Senate races for the Democrats? Can the Democrats reach 60 in the Senate?

For today, we'll focus on the Senate (the House will be the subject tomorrow). For the Senate, the national focus has been on Minnesota, mostly because of Al Franken: did you know he used to be on television? But there are plenty of other races to watch. Here's a list of the Senate seats up for grabs:

Republican incumbents running
Alabama (Jeff Sessions), Alaska (Ted Stevens), Georgia (Saxby Chambliss), Kansas (Pat Roberts), Kentucky (Mitch McConnell), Maine (Susan Collins), Minnesota (Norm Coleman), Mississippi (Thad Cochran), New Hampshire (John E. Sununu), North Carolina (Elizabeth Dole), Oklahoma (James M. Inhofe), Oregon (Gordon H. Smith), South Carolina (Lindsey Graham), Tennessee (Lamar Alexander), Texas (John Cornyn), Wyoming (Michael B. Enzi)

Democratic incumbents running
Arkansas (Mark Pryor), Delaware (Joseph R. Biden Jr.), Illinois (Richard J. Durbin), Iowa (Tom Harkin), Louisiana (Mary L. Landrieu), Massachusetts (John Kerry), Michigan (Carl Levin), Montana (Max Baucus), New Jersey (Frank R. Lautenberg), Rhode Island (Jack Reed), South Dakota (Tim Johnson), West Virginia (John D. Rockefeller IV)

Republican open seat, retiring
Colorado (Wayne Allard), Idaho (Larry E. Craig), Nebraska (Chuck Hagel), New Mexico (Pete V. Domenici), Virginia (John W. Warner)

Republican partial term, running again
Mississippi (Roger Wicker), Wyoming (John A. Barrasso)

Republicans might have to be worried about Alaska, Kentucky, Minnesota, and New Hampshire. Maine and Oregon would seem to be trouble for the GOP, but their incumbents may prove sharper than the demographics of those states would assume. And the open seats in Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia could easily flip to the Democrats.

But are there other upsets on the horizon?

Of the Democratic incumbents running, Mary Landrieu and Tim Johnson would seem to be in the most trouble. But there is a good shot for both of them to retain their seats.

The Republicans are suffering in great part due to the sheer number of races where they won't coast to victory. But can the Democrats get to 60 seats so they can easily pass legislation?

The one Senate race you don't see is an unofficial one: here in Illinois, there is a race for who might succeed Barack Obama if he is elected president in November. The Democrats dominate the Illinois political landscape, so there are a number of possibilities. Two House members who have a good shot at getting a 2-year head start in the Senate are Jan Schakowsky and Jesse Jackson, Jr. Dan Hynes, who lost to Obama in the U.S. Senate primary, is another strong candidate.

But Governor Rod Blagojevich has run into a number of ethical concerns, and some top Democrats in the state House and Senate would be thrilled to see him leave for many reasons. Which is why I think Gov. Blagojevich will pick himself to replace Obama in the Senate. This may seem like an audacious move, but he's certainly capable of making such a move.

And depending on who Obama picks for vice president, there may be another Senate race to consider.

So let us know where you stand. Check in from a state where there is an exciting Senate race. Does Al Franken have a good shot? Can Gordon Smith and Susan Collins survive? And will Ted Stevens find the voters of Alaska telling him "NO"?

Technorati Tags: Be-Elected Chad Rubel 2008 race Senate Al Franken Barack Obama Rod Blagojevich