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Obama Surpasses Clinton in Numbers of Pledged Delegates With Weekend Sweep

BUZZFLASH EDITOR'S BLOG

Mark Karlin, Editor and Publisher, BuzzFlash.com February 11, 2008

Democratic Race
Current Delegate Count:
BIDEN00 delegates
CLINTON1,1311,131 delegates
DODD00 delegates
EDWARDS2626 delegates
GRAVEL00 delegates
KUCINICH00 delegates
OBAMA1,1341,134 delegates
RICHARDSON00 delegates

CBS News Delegate Count as of Feb. 11

CBS Delegate Count Includes Estimate of Superdelegate "Pledges"

With the decisive weekend sweep of four states and the Virgin Islands by Barack Obama, he has passed Hillary Clinton in the crucial, popularly elected, pledged delegates. This is the first time since Iowa that he has been in that position.

As we noted in a previous BuzzFlash Editor's Blog, because of the way in which Democratic delegates are finally allocated -- and because the number of superdelegate "pledges" are tallied by individual news organizations -- delegate counts for the Dems vary by news organization.

But here are two to look at:

CBS: 1134 for Obama and 1131 for Clinton

CNN: 1148 for Clinton and 1121 for Obama

CNN Delegate Count Projections as of February 11

Clinton
Pledged: 924
Superdelegates: 224
Total: 1,148
Obama
Pledged: 986
Superdelegates: 135
Total: 1,121

Taking a closer look at the CNN figures, which put Clinton ahead of Obama in total delegate votes (including "pledged" superdelegate commitments), Obama is ahead among popularly elected delegates (excluding the appointed superdelegates) by 986 delegates to 924 for Clinton. This Obama advantage in the popularly elected delegates is likely to increase over the next few weeks until the "showdown" in Texas and Ohio. But the outcome of even those races -- if Obama continues with much momentum -- remains unclear. Remember the "Giuliani" fiasco from seeing others roll up delegates in a series of wins.

Clearly, the race is entering a stage where the two campaigns are likely going to risk the nomination based on their respective strategies over the next three weeks.

Both campaigns are going to continue to joust over positioning the issue of the role of the superdelegates, particularly if Obama emerges, at the end of the state primary voting, with a larger number of pledged delegates.

The key unknown, if Obama continues to rack up the majority of contested states by the crushing margins of the past weekend through the March 4th Texas and Ohio primaries (which also includes Vermont and Rhode Island voting on that day), is if the momentum built up in such a scenario starts to impact the outcome in the March 4th states to the detriment of what is perceived as more favorable demographics for Clinton.

In what was expected originally to be a "walk-away with the nomination" on Super Tuesday run for Hillary Clinton, we have ended up with a race that will go down to possibly Pennsylvania on April 22, or beyond.

We are in uncharted and uncertain territory now. This is a campaign of two contrasting narratives and demographic bases, that nonetheless are evolving, as the competition for delegates progresses.

It's certainly a race -- with all its crosscurrents of generational divisions, gender and race -- that political scientists will be studying for a long time to come.

But keep your eye on that pledged delegate count. At this point, Clinton has the edge with the superdelegates. But a large number of the uncommitted superdelegates are likely to hold back now, given that the race is so close.

And then there are those 26 Edwards delegates in the wing that we first posted about -- and that both Clinton and Obama are personally meeting with Edwards to discuss (as in seeking his endorsement). And the question of Michigan and Florida is still out there.

The family feud within the Democratic Party is going to continue for awhile, alas.

But take heart in this. In almost every state, record breaking numbers of people are swarming to vote in the Dem primaries and caucuses. There is an excitement, hope and fervor that should make us all proud.

We are engaging in the most fundamental act of democracy; we are voting for who will represent us in the White House. We feel empowered and passionate.

That is a very good sign indeed.

BUZZFLASH EDITOR'S BLOG

BuzzFlash Afternote: "As far as all the different delegate numbers that you see for Obama and Clinton, there is good reason for that. They are largely just estimates. In many states, final delegate allocations are determined at a follow-up state party convention or state party meeting. The counts won't change dramatically, but they will change. (This explains the differing claims over whether Clinton or Obama won one more delegate in Nevada. This won't be finally determined until a Nevada state party convention a little further down the road.) Also, the superdelegate 'pledges' of support are just that. They aren't recorded by the DNC, but kept manually by various media organizations."

BUZZFLASH EDITOR'S BLOG


Time for Clinton to bow out

Tomorrow we have a few more contests. Should Obama sweep the Potomac primaries tomorrow, it may be time for Clinton to do the right thing for the party she claims to care so much about and bow out and allow Obama the chance to mount a national campaign. I hope she has the integrity and humility to do just that. ALL the polls show she is a much better candidate against McCain, and just a casual conversation at the coffee shop you can sense that most people will vote for McCain over Hillary, yet would support Obama over McCain. Obama appeals to a huge demographic, as well as moderate repbulicans. Hillary would serve to embolden the republicans and unite them. So vicseral is the hatred of her, and it is irrational, but reality, that the right thing to do would be for her to step aside and unite this party behind Barack Obama for the next president of the United States.

a vote for Obama is a vote for McCain

Yes, he's a wonderful speaker - we all loved him at the convention - and he's got a great excitement about him. He wants change - who doesn't? He offers hope - um, yeah, that was Bill Clinton's line in '92. He didn't vote for the war - right, he couldn't because he was not yet a member of the Senate. (Easy to say how you would have voted when you didn't actually have to vote.) Most of his goals are the same as Hillary's, the same as John Edwards. So who should we pick?

We need to choose the candidate that will win in November AND get the job done. I want the one who can make it past the Rove gauntlet. There was some suggestion that Obama snubbed Hillary at the SOTU. This isn't high school. Has Obama never heard of Karl Rove? If Obama can't handle Clinton, then how on earth will he be able to stand up to the full Rove Smear Machine?

I want change - Real Change - not just talk. We are in a real mess here with real problems: the war, the economy, our diplomatic relations with the rest of the world. We need someone who knows what they’re doing. Hillary can get it done.

Real change?

If you think Hillary would be real change, then I don't know where you've been for the past decade or so. Her experience is with a broken system. I see an awful lot of "same old same old" if she is elected. As to the "some suggestion" stuff, I wouldn't get all blown out of proportion because of "some suggestion" that this or that might have happened. I'd rather pay attention to issues, strengths, weaknesses and trust factor. Both candidates have positions on the issues, both have strengths and weaknesses, and we can get a sense from both on how much we can trust them. That's what's important, not "some suggestions."

Vote the Future

Premises, premises. Your post is overhung with false premises. "If Obama can't handle Clinton. . .?" Where have you been? From what most of us are reading he is handling her quite well thank you - and if he doesn't "handle" her then I guess he won't be the nominee. Of course, the polls have been showing a greater margin for Obama over McCain than Clinton has over McCain (her advantage is within the margin of error). If you wish to deal in facts, please do so, but don't give us starry-eyed ancestor worship in place of reasoned deliberation. Those of us who support Obama, at least at this moment, can feel that not only is our guy the one we really like, but he has the better chance. You know what it is. Hillary supporters understand how dirty the Clintons fight (and govern); they are seen as prevailing on that basis and maybe the cramped little souls out there will receive some benefit from the godmother and her Don. Hasn't anyone told you yet - crime does not pay, especially when the deal isn't even in writing.

Your Point????

Thank you for answering my question for me...although some of you still insist on living in the past, "it ain't comin back" Your comment doesn't say much about where were headed in the future either...now does it....Everything about Amerika today is the complete opposite of where it began over 200 years ago...Greed...Laziness...Intolerance towards others...the list is staggering. But your vote and a "fresh face" is gonna change everything? They are all one in the same......animals. Greed and self serving agenda's are some their better attributes. New and fresh is not alway's better.

Some of you are in for a very, very, rude awakening.....but you can alway's choose to stay asleep...they don't care either way.

"I am quite sure now that often, very often, in matters concerning religion and politics a man's reasoning powers are not above the monkey's".
- Mark Twain

For whom the bell tolls....

Are you quoting Twain for yourself?

WillB

Murk-man

You've more than made Mark Twain's point.

Happy Happy..Joy Joy!!!

I am astounded sometimes...at the ignorance that permeates throughout this once grand nation of our's....

Still believe your vote will make a difference????

That's like saying the "spoon" made Rosie O'donnell fat......

But I digress........

Cynicism with no point is like a joke with no laugh

What made this "once grand nation" grand was that people back in those "golden days" had the audacity to sign declarations and vote...your digresion is detour to where?

WillB

Sad, Sad. . Oy Oy!!!

Thanks for your brilliant contribution to the conversation.

Time to include

Rules should Rule...and most of us voters in states with primaries/caucusus after Super Tuesday have never have had a choice in other nominating processes. So I'm not too inclined to feel sorry for MI and FL. HOWEVER, this nomination process is coming down to the wire. I'm convinced that the voters from two of our biggest states need to be included. Its really that simple. The ONLY way to do it properly is to establish a date for MI and FL Democrats to vote again, but after the PA primary (if it still is a tie). Saying 'vote again' is actually a misnomer, since many voters didn't vote because they knew it wasn't going to count.

We can't afford to have this derision, we are an inclusie party.

Here's a Question

If Florida and Michigan's delegates don't count, what about their "superdelegates?" Do they count? Seems if the DNC stripped both states of their "delegates," it should be all of them, including the super-dupers. If anyone knows, please answer.

Commonsense

A reasonable suggestion. As you have stated very well, that kind of mechanism would give the voters in those two states a way to fairly participate in the process. It's a pity their state parties refused to play by the rules.

I thought Democrats stood for counting all votes!

As a Florida progessive Dem, I am outraged at the DNC and the cluster you know what they have made with my state. Over 4 million people voted in the FL primary - four million! Every single candidate was on the ballot, we made our choice. What F'ing right does some committee have to throw out our votes? Sounds like Repugs to me and the old days of poll taxes. Because some bigwigs at the DNC and in Tallahassee made bad decisions, 4 million Democrats are being disenfranchised? No caucus, no national proportional seating, is acceptable to me or the voters in my state.

I also love the double std. on superdelegates. Oh, they have to vote like the voters in their state, but it's OK for Kennedy to campaign and give money and presumably even vote for BO but all the rest have to do what their states say?

Come on Democrats - act inclusive for once when it really counts. Take the needs of the nation to get some decent governance and restore our constitution into account and don't slant everything towards any one particular candidate. Michigan should revote, not caucus where participation can be artificially limited, and FL votes should be counted. It's the only FAIR way, it's right and it's Democratic. Please don't tear the country and our party apart!!

jaglady

Meaning Challenged

"Depends on the meaning of 'is'." What is it about rules that some people find so hard to accept. Florida Dems chose to ignore the rules of their own party and hold a rogue primary. SO they lost their delegates at the convention. Well, too friggin bad. Live with it - dems da rules.

Flash for Democratic Party!

It is now more than official. Obama not only leads in delegates but is capable of appealing to voters throughout the wonderful spectrum of humanity that is this nation. That the Billary campaign attempts to leverage a victory off the issues of race and ethnicity is one of the greatest hypocrisies ever to emerge from the Democratic Party and that's saying something. It looks like the Billary will finally have to face the reality of democratic choice. If the Democratic party hacks attempt to "super" delegate this nomination from the clear choice of the people, they will produce a firestorm of indignation which not only will assure a Republican victory in November but also a very diminished change in Congress. This is not only a problem with the Dems but with the American left in general. I am a left-leaning independent who supports Obama but will NEVER support Billary or a party that whines about a war and an economy which seem to be beyond their capacity to remedy. Hillary says that Obama is all talk. For the last two years we have had little more than talk from the Democrats altogether. And now they want to shove down our throats the moldy remnants of a former administration? I don't think so.

Dem in name only

You sound just like my 22 year old son, only he takes the reverse position and says he will never vote for Obama and will sit the race out because Obama is all pretty words and no action, no plan. I bet you are all for Kennedy and Rangel being able to vote for Obama, even though their states voted heavily for Clinton, but it's not OK for Clinton's superdelegates to vote for her, even though they may be from states where the popular vote went to Obama? How very Republican of you.

jaglady

Not Dem Even in Name

As my post makes clear I am an independent not a Dem. As far as I know, Rangel supports Clinton not Obama unless that has changed since the primary in New York. Superdelegates should vote for whom they wish. My post was just a reminder to Dems that superdelegates will be anything but super if they blow this election for the Dems. As far as being compared to a 22-year old - I wish.

Pressure on Superdelegates

The real pressure on the so-called superdelegates will come from the voters, as many of them are elected officials (reps, senators, governors). So let's say Candidate A gets more of the popular vote in the great State of Confusion than Candidate B (and thus more of the pledged delegates). There are ten superdelegates in the State of Confusion, all of them elected officials. Now, what might be the fallout for those superdelegates/elected officials if they go against the tide of popular vote and award themselves to Candidate B, who got less of the popular vote? Maybe losing their own elected positions? I would suggest that a voter strategy to ensure fairness might be to let your superdelegate/elected officials know that if they go against the popular vote, their jobs are in jeopardy. The trick is to find out who they are, from a reliable source. And if anyone knows a reliable source for indentifying the superdelegates, please tell us.

Delegate count

Thanks for clearing up the delegate counts! You would thing that our media with there Star Trek studios would be able to explain it to people but they didn't. Thanks Buzzflash! Superdelegates will not thwart the will of the people!

Clinton dumps Blacks for Latino Voters?

Black against Brown?

Snip:

Insensitivity was reflected in a recent issue of the New Yorker, when Clinton's veteran Latino political operative Sergio Bendixen was quoted as saying, "The Hispanic voter -- and I want to say this very carefully -- has not shown a lot of willingness or affinity to support black candidates."
That brief quote from an obscure politician has generated shock and awe in Democratic circles. It comes close to validating the concern that the Clinton campaign is not only relying on a brown firewall built on an anti-black base but is reinforcing it. A prominent Democrat who has not picked a candidate this year told me, "In any campaign I have been involved in, Bendixen would have been gone."
But not in Clinton's campaign. At the Jan. 15 debate, before the Nevada caucuses, where the Latino vote was important, NBC's Tim Russert read the Bendixen quote and asked Clinton, "Does that represent the view of your campaign?" Her response was chilling: "No, he was making a historical statement."

CLICK LINK

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/27/AR2008012701612_pf.html