Doubtless you recall all those plucky reassurances from the Democratic establishment earlier this month about what sure looked like political bloodbaths in Virginia and New Jersey. In the former's gubernatorial contest, the Republican victor annihilated the Democratic loser among independent voters by a prodigious 31 points; in the latter, by nearly 30. But, comforted the establishment, Those races don't mean a thing, nothing to see here folks, move along, it's just some local trouble with no wider implications.
You knew it was humbug then. And now, reports the Politico, the establishment is finally 'fessing up. Those races weren't offering idiosyncratic, mystical tea leaves to be interrupted by personal whim; they were unmistakable foghorns of doom.
The White House itself -- for itself -- isn't panicking much. It's three years to go before facing those same independents, and besides, just who have Republicans got? Pawlenty-Romney of somniferous solemnity? A Palin-Beck ticket of clinical certifiability? Gingrich-Huckabee? Barbour-Who Cares? Yep, 2012 is looking like a bloody, one-sided match-up that by all humane rights should be banned in nearly all 50 states, based on cruelty-to-animal prohibitions.
But Congressional Democrats are a whole different story, and 2010 is a whole different year. And, reports the Politico, "a flurry of new polls makes clear that Democrats are facing deeper problems with independents" than they originally acknowledged. "Mounting evidence that independent voters have soured on the Democrats is prompting a debate among party officials about what rhetorical and substantive changes are needed to halt the damage."
Why are independents so crucial, thus the problems so "deep" and the "damage" so worrisome? That seems like a question hardly worth asking, since the answer seems so profoundly self-evident. Yet in every election the victorious base -- on this side or that -- gets the answer stunningly wrong: the right thinks it won the race for its party, or the left thinks the same, when in reality it was that broad swath in the middle -- the independents -- who did the trick. The base, almost always, is a gimme; candidates go hat in hand to independents to win.
One of the recently released polls cited by Politico -- Gallup -- reveals just how much deep do-do Democrats are in, and how much begging lies ahead: "just 14 percent of independents approve of the job Congress is doing, the lowest figure all year." However even more sweat-inducing -- since disapproval of Congress is, after all, an honored American tradition -- is that "In just the past few days alone, surveys have shown Democratic incumbents trailing Republicans among independent voters by double-digit margins in competitive statewide contests in places as varied as Connecticut, Ohio and Iowa."
Connecticut! True, Senator Dodd really stepped in it earlier this year, but still ... Connecticut! That's a five-alarmer.
Nationwide and among all registered voters, says Gallup, there are signs "of a strong Republican showing at the polls"; "if normal turnout patterns" -- meaning older, white voters scurrying en masse to the community center -- "prevail in the coming election," then "prospects for a good Democratic showing appear slim." What really tips the scales? Among independents, generic Republicans on a ballot lead Democrats by 52 percent to 30 percent. In swing districts and swing states, that's an unbeatable margin.
But what to do? Typically, more than a few Democratic leaders and strategists just don't get it. The chairwoman of the Colorado Democratic Party, for instance, told Politico: "Quite frankly, we’ve got to do a better job of messaging. There’s a lot of work to be done to get independents more comfortable with what we're doing." Chimed a pollster for Democrats in Virginia: "This is what’s particularly heartbreaking: There is a real sense that no one in Congress is standing up for them. It’s a real problem [of] messaging for us."
Messaging? -- and framing, and all that buzzword stuff? That's important, no doubt, and as we all know, Democrats have yet to learn the fundamentals of it. But it was an independent analyst from Pew Research Center who nailed the much deeper urgency: "I think it’s about action and not about words right now. The public wants to see action. I’m not sure words are going to help Democrats at this point. They’ve got to achieve some successes."
Amen. And that's why a fast health-care bill is, politically speaking, more important than a good health-care bill at the moment. If Democrats can retain sizable Congressional majorities, there will be time to tinker. But for now, they've got to clear the decks -- for jobs.
Early in the Politico's piece there was this description of independents: "swing voters who swung dramatically toward the [Democratic Party] in 2006 and 2008 but who now are registering deep unease with the amount of spending and debt called for under Obama's agenda."
I would take issue with that wording. It's not the amount of spending and debt that has independents roiled seemingly beyond rescue, but the targets of that spending and debt -- namely, Wall Street and war, rather than jobs-creation.
It isn't WHERE Indies are, but WHY
Carp, I don't want to hear anything about a few polls showing Independents moving away from democrats. That tells me absolutely ZERO. The only pertinant question, assuming I buy their sampling--is WHY are they moving away. Lacking this--the MOST important info about your precious polls, I suppose I'll have to speculate.
What we are witnessing is a full-fledged bipartisan, populist backlash against government and monied interests. Obama as the main rep of the government has failed to fight these monied interests as he promised he would last year--and a lot of people are damn angry about it. I sense very little "change" coming out of this White House, much less "change we can believe in."
Alright, there's another reason Indies are being swayed, and that's because of the Repugs' brilliant use of the Overton Window. They scream the most vile, repugnant radical epithets at Obama and democratic policies, and they do it from the farthest end of the far-right spectrum. Democrats (except for Alan Grayson) respond meekly and ineffectively to these attacks, and before one knows it republicans have turned a center-right moderate democrat into Joe Stalin.
So there you have it. Obama's failure to go after monied interests and cleanse the White House of lobbyists, combined with brilliantly revoting republican messaging is winning the day. Obama is working his ass off but he seems detached.
Here's one poll you never mention--the Republicans are a reviled and shrinking party. For Independents to be swayed back to them after just living thru 8 years of a galactic Bushian republican clusterfuck is a testament to how the democrats have failed in both word and deed.
The dicktatorship of the Carpy propaganda
Carpy once again parrots the propaganda about the importance of the outcomes of the VA and NJ governor races.
He conveniently leaves out the fact that the VA Democrat was in fact a DINO who was not popular among the Democrats in Northern Virginia or the progressive Democrats throughout the state.
Plus he leaves out the fact that few Democrats in NJ liked John Corzine, especially after he raised taxes.
Worst of all, Carpy leaves out the fact that when a true progressive candidate goes up against a far right Tea Bagger in a Congressional race, the Democrat wins, even in a place like NY23, where Democrats never won before.
Of course, Carpy could write an inspiring, enlightening progressive comment like this:
http://baltimorechronicle.com/2009/111909Cherbonnier.shtml
But instead, he acts like the good little lap dog that he is, writes another oped about nothing, and gives us another doom and gloom scenario for the Democrats designed to make us complacent. He wants us to believe that we are powerless to effect change. Of course he is wrong, again!
Buzzflash, again I wonder why you keep this FAUX Gnus host wannabe on your writing staff? Don't you know he is part of the reason why you can't raise enough money, again?
only you
only you PM Carpenter could have found a way to put a positive spin on the corporation health care bill having to be passed right now.This however is the trouble.Obama your friend who you stupidly keep trying to compare to the great FDR instead of Hoover has sold out the people to the corporations and turned the party conservative.People backed Obama when he talked of liberal progressive change.even if we should get a decent candidate for president like Kucinich the people will no longer believe the spin from the Democratic party and the spin from DLC members like yourself.the American people have been betrayed by Obama and the so called moderate Democrats who seem tyo control the Democratic party.Even if Obama decides to do something about the depression were in he will not attaack global free trade,nor will the "moderates".We will get some patchwork legislatio that will cure nothing and won't attack the real problems causing our economic decline.
also
he not only reads Politico but apparently takes it seriously. That's an establishment mentality for ya.
WRONG!!!
"And that's why a fast health-care bill is, politically speaking, more important than a good health-care bill at the moment."
This 'Dog's Breakfast' of patently awful health care slop will destroy Democrats chances of ever getting a larger majority.
agreed... Obama/Emanuel's atrocity of a 'reform' bill will DESTR
agreed... Obama/Emanuel's atrocity of a 'reform' bill will DESTROY the "Democrat's" chances of ever getting ANYTHING "democratic" done for years to come... WHICH IS RAHM EMANUEL's INTENTION, he is a RIGHT-WING LIKUDNIK WAR-MONGER and GolddamnSachs BIG-FINANCE SWINDLER - JOE LIEBERMAN ON STEROIDS - masquerading as a "Democrat".
note: not that Emanuel should take pride in being "Joe Lieberman on steroids" - IF Lieberman came along at THIS time in history - when GoldamnSachs BLATANTLY OWNS _both_ the Bush White House (Bushies' TreasurySecretary Skank Paulson was a FORMER GOLDMAN-SACHS CHAIRMAN), AND the Obama White House, AND Wall Street (with their "pumped and dumped, leveraged take-overs, buy-outs, and PUSHED TO FAILURE of Lehman Brothers, Bear-Stearns, Merrill-Lynch, et al) AND Congress - if Joe Lieberman, with his AIPAC, Likudnik connections, came around as a younger pol at this time, HE would be "Joe Lieberman on steroids," too.
What is AMAZING is that the Obama White House is SO BLATANTLY a pawn of the GOLDDAMN-SACHS (big Financial) AND LIKUDNIK WAR-LOBBY - there is scarcely a DIME's worth of DIFFERENCE between the Obama White House, and the BILL KRISTOL/SARAH PALIN agenda - yet it is "VERBOTTEN!" to say so!
(In his "health care reform" bill, Obama is SELLING OUT WOMEN, CHILDREN, and MILLIONS of families stuck with BAD insurance; just as his TRILLIONS of dollars of "BAILOUTS" GIVE-AWAYS have SOLD FAMILIES and SMALL BUSINESSES down the river for the past 11 months!)
This is PURE neo-con TREACHERY, a RADICAL RIGHT-WING AGENDA, MASQUERADING as "progressive," much less "democratic".
The Baucus Factor
Everyone else and everything else attached to this debacle pales in comparison to the Baucus delay. Watching Baucus and his subcommittee was like watching an old woman getting ready for the ball. Baucus gave everyone from teabaggers to Blur Dogs the time to figure exactly why they hated the reform that they already knew they would hate. Without the Baucus factor a good bill could have been brought to the floor of both houses by July, which just happens to be before the August recess.
If healthcare had been passed by July, then other legislation could have been passed during the past four months. As I have said before, a jobs/stimulus bill would have been impossible until the end of the year in any event, but I continue to believe that the electorate wants a pound of flesh from Wall Street and from the banks. Think of the political capital that could have been gained if Democrats had spent the past four months publicly flogging Wall Street and the banks, followed by the passage of two strong pieces of legislation with Republicans screaming from the top of their lungs.
It is till not too late, but it is really close.
I hope all of Baucus' buddies in the senate remember this the next time they elect chairmen.
Too Late Now
If anyone doubted that Congress and the White House aren't dialed in to reality, the jobs issues should have convinced them. Does it really take adverse polling numbers to get through their thick skulls that Main Street is ailing and needs attention immediately last February?
Only someone who isn't themselves connected to cause-and-effect reality would doubt that the Republican Party is in good shape to retake the Congress next year. In doing so, it really doesn't matter who they put up in 2012, for the public will be very fed up with Obama's poor performance and be willing to toss him out on his bipartisan ass. They aren't going to care if the best the GOP has to offer is Palin-Beck, for their anger at Obama letting them down will prevent them from selecting him as the lesser of two evils.
Obama's blind obedience to his one-track-minded advisory staff shows that he is no leader or visionary. His selection of that one-track-minded advisory staff screams to Main Street either that he sold us out or is too incompetent to know how to select advisors. That the staff was itself so busy back then baking free pie-in-the-sky for the Wall Street banks, while Obama did nothing to stop them, isn't going to help the Democrats. There is no way that Main Street will vote for those who didn't have time to see that those who voted them into power were themselves powerless against the excesses that were then - as they are still - being rewarded with opulent government rescue.
So go ahead and think that the Republicans are their own worst enemies. They will continue down the path toward power regardless of what you say, for they know that manipulation of emotion is a proven method to deliver electoral success - especially since their opposition can't do anything right except for screwing up. A fast health care bill is going to prove to be a bad health care bill, and will not help the Democrats one bit. It is too late for a jobs bill to help anyone. The Democrats got the order of problem importance wrong, and no amount of fancy tap dancing now is going to change the fact that the Democrats let the people hang while they catered to the wealthy.