White House senior adviser David Axelrod perhaps framed it best, and if not best, at least with admirable economy: "The real story here is, I think this thing is ambiguous."
That of course is true, yet the pregnant downsides to last night's elections -- in addition to the media's growing narrative of President Obama's lack of one -- outweighed, no doubt, the positives for Obama's larger agenda. And in politics it's always more prudent to internally analyze one's weaknesses and the opposition's strengths rather than celebrate whatever success has been had.
Such as Democrat Bill Owens' victory over Conservative Doug Hoffman, whose most uplifting scene was surely this, as reported this morning by the Times: "Mr. Hoffman spoke to a deflated crowd of about 50 in a hotel ballroom here soon after midnight."
Just where, Ms. Palin and Messrs. Armey and Beck, is the far-right hoopla now? On the other hand, Owens failed to gain a plurality, so I doubt he'll be shopping for real estate in Washington, D.C. anytime soon. His district remains staunchly Republican, even though, momentarily, it was converted by lobotomized freaks into a wretched freak show of the lowest unibrow.
So, all things considered, out of New York came the good news. The race's freakishness will be analyzed for weeks, but in brief it seems that Hoffman & Co. was a conservative bridge too far. But not so, obviously, in New Jersey and Virginia.
There, the customary off-year demographic plague hit: African-American voters, as well as younger and thus first-time voters -- those who were so responsible for propelling Obama and larger Democratic majorities into office a year ago -- simply failed to show. But, as noted, that's rather typical. Old, cranky, white folks tend to dominate off-year elections. Hello, 2010.
What was unsettling, therefore, was how independents broke (a trend also significant in the Hoffman race, even though he lost). "Independent voters," observed the Times, "who in New Jersey favored the president in 2008 and in Virginia split between Mr. Obama and John McCain, delivered strong margins for both Mr. Christie [in New Jersey] and Mr. McDonnell [in Virginia]."
True, there were commanding local and regional and candidate-specific reasons as to why these election-determining independents broke Republican; but the fact remains, they did -- and virtually on the heels of what was soberly interpreted as an organic realignment in 2008.
The White House, of course, will focus intensely on the regional nature of these races, but that cannot, and will not, explain them in their totality -- especially New Jersey's, in which an incumbent Democratic governor, sitting in a royal blue state, and for whom Obama made multiple appearances, lost to a grossly outspent Republican.
What's more, or rather what's worse, is what Adam Nagourney observed this morning and what I've fretted about for several days: "That [center-right independent] swing will certainly be noted by moderate Congressional Democrats facing re-election next year, who may now be more reluctant to support Mr. Obama on tough votes in Congress."
I can assure you with exceptional confidence that there is no one this morning in the White House's political office or Democratic Congressional leadership who is high-fiving much of anything about yesterday's results. On balance, they were a disaster.
Yes, a Democrat eked out a victory in New York, further reducing the GOP's northeast presence. Yet there may be some uncomfortable element of truth in this: "I would say it’s the tip of the spear," said Dick Armey, several days ago, about NY-23.
And don't expect yesterday to dampen his zeal for long. A close loss can, after a little recuperation, energize even more than success -- and he wasn't merely puffing when he added, "We are the biggest source of energy in American politics today."
For sure, the tea partyers aren't, and FreedomWorks isn't, and certainly Sarah Palin's Facebook page is and shall remain a political joke -- but all lie within a general mood of national frustration and disgruntlement just waiting to be exploited. The Hoffman-converts, and in particular non-ideological independents who cast their votes his way, are but one variable in a political vacuum being filled.
The year 2010 is still light years away, so it's impossible to extrapolate with any real precision what yesterday's results will mean down the road. But one thing, at least, should be blisteringly clear to Beltway Democrats: They have failed to capitalize on last year's historic election.
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just stop. Really.
While cons make fools of themselves spinning Hoffman's loss as a win you do the reverse - spinning Owens' win as a loss. That's equally foolish, and it shows.
Independents voted R
The independents voted for Republicans yesterday. What's the surprise? I look at it as electoral efficiency. The Democrats have the White House and huge majorities in both houses of Congress but they get almost nothing done. In fact, any steps they have taken had to be vetted, approved, watered down and essentially ruined by the Republicans before the Democrats would even discuss them. If we're going to get crappy legislation, why not just let the Republicans do all the work instead of listening to the Democrats whine about how they can't do ANYTHING with super-majorities. Republicans got just about everything they wanted when they had razor thin majorities and bragged about how the known universe supported their actions. The Democrats have the known universe behind them and they bitch and moan about how they can't do anything. The Democrats deserve to lose.
Carpy whines, "Owens failed
Carpy whines, "Owens failed to gain a plurality, so I doubt he'll be shopping for real estate in Washington, D.C. anytime soon."
Seriously Carpy, you need to be put on a suicide watch list. Owens just won the equivalent of the Triple Crown horse races, but you are ready to sell him off to the glue factory just because he didn't win by a greater margin.
The whiner contines to whine, "I can assure you with exceptional confidence that there is no one this morning in the White House's political office or Democratic Congressional leadership who is high-fiving much of anything about yesterday's results. On balance, they were a disaster."
Would that be exceptional depressing whiney confidence? What disaster? Virginia and New Jersey are purple states. Deeds in VA ran a weak race as Republican Light, and Corzine was widely unpopular in NJ for raising taxes. So many progressive voters stayed home in both states. Besides, governors have little political muscle in Washington D.C., so there really was no "disaster" in either of those states.
Political Vacuum & The Beltway Democrats
I don't know whether it is just me, or what, but I am not hearing anything from the Democratic Party's Leading Pol's that would indicate to me that they are anything other than Blue Dogs (Republican Lite). In VA and NJ, you had repig lites thumping their worn out tin drums to some rythmn that only they could dance to. As usual, if you are being Repig lite in a Repig State you gonna get your ass handed to you in a bucket, ie; no longer attached to your corpse. Hell no, the Grassroots and the progressives were not there, you don't diss those who brung ya and expect anything but a "shit sandwich" at the Repig Banquet..
If President Obama expects anything good to happen in next year's elections, he and those who are up on high with him had better start listening to those of us who worked our butts off to get him where he is.. It sure as hell wasn't Herr Rahm and the other Blue Dogs who got him elected...
Just this old Chief's 2 cents.
If they would only listen to Howard Dean
You can't beat Republicans by being Republican Light.
~Howard Dean
The man most responsible for winning back the majority in the Senate and the House, and for putting Obama in the White House over the past two election cycles, was kicked out of D.C. by Rahmbo, the man who could be responsible for losing everything back to the Republicans over the next two election cycles.
So how do we prevent that? We have to vote out incumbent Blue Dog DINO-Fascists in the upcoming Democratic Primaries next year.
Oh, and we have to get Howard Dean back into the picture too!
You can't beat Republicans by being Republican Light.
Kevin, we can teach 'em to Read, but can we manage to get them to understand? I am not sure on that point at present. Guess that's why I live in Tahiti, something to do with the education system, or possibly the fact that Polynesians are born Progressive hmmmmmmmm
KR Jackson
CPO USN Ret
what a shock!
Another big surprise in the nutty world of politics americana. In the vacuum of leadership that is our "agent of great change" and his corporate loving cohorts in congress, those most discerning voters known as "independent, swing etc..", break heavily for the wolf in disguise that is the GOP. How fitting that these independent sheep will further the cause of their own slaughter, while our great leader twiddles thumbs and contemplates the consequences of his bipartisan bullshit. As forseen by most intelligent people, all of those progressive voters who elected a president to fight, and instead got a president who only fights them, stayed home. We can only hope that the dearth of left leaning voters gets a message through that you cant win without your base. We can hope, but the more likely result will be the democrats in congress moving more to the right, as the media screams of a titanic shift back to the bullshit myth of the "center right nation". All so ridiculous and so, so democrat. Squander huge amounts of political capital on a single republican vote, and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. When the wingnuts retake the government in 2010, and send the change agent packing in 2012, they will happily show all the sheep how to ram through their destructive agenda. Get off your presidential ass Barack. You are running out of time!