In New York's Owens-Scozzafava-Hoffman race there had loomed two major narratives of keen-enough interest in the right's internal spats, but both are suddenly receding in the early shadows of, perhaps, a much broader electoral -- and unspeakable -- shift.
First, a short look into the conventional narratives.
The Times concisely framed one of them earlier this week: "The race ... has become a contentious referendum on the [Republican] party’s future, and its outcome will help shape what kinds of candidates the Republicans run as they look to rebuild their ranks in Congress next fall."
And none other than conservative Newt Gingrich, who, as you know, is backing the "liberal" GOP candidate, just as concisely framed the other narrative, which is largely procedural in nature: He cautioned his fellow Republicans about the "grave danger of establishing the precedent that every faction can run a third-party candidate if they lose a primary or a convention," thus sabotaging many a legitimate GOP candidacy and electing the Democrat.
True to form, however, the Irreconcilables and Fire-Breathers on the far right say they just don't care. It's their ideological way, or it's war. Thus they've been crawling, en masse, out from under their mutinous rocks -- the Dick Armeys, the Tony Perkinses, the Steve Forbeses, the Wall Street Journal's editorialists and the National Review's insurrectionists.
"[T]hey," as the Times put it, are intent on defeating "Dede Scozzafava, the Republican candidate for Congress in the 23rd District, whose views on abortion, same-sex marriage and taxes they deem insufficiently conservative for anyone running as a Republican" -- even though they also "acknowledge that their efforts could deliver the election to the Democratic candidate."
The most prominently noted among the "they," though, has been Sarah Palin, whose endorsement of the Conservative Party's candidate, Doug Hoffman, the Times described as "the biggest thunderbolt" in the race so far. "Political parties must stand for something," wrote Palin (or someone) on her Facebook page, but "Unfortunately, the Republican Party today has decided to choose a candidate who more than blurs the lines" between The Democracy, as it was once known, and The Grand Old Party, which, fleetingly, it once was.
In reference to which, as The Hill reported, strategist Paul Begala wrote to Democratic supporters: "the inmates have taken over the asylum.... Do you want to see something REALLY scary this Halloween? Picture Sarah Palin endorsing a Conservative Party candidate and a favorite of the 'tea party' crowd in the NY-23 special election and raising $116,000 in 24 hours."
Notwithstanding Begala's judicious horror, we may indeed be treated to more than just Palin's self-interested trick. For her candidate is on the move.
Reported the Politico on Thursday: "[A]ccording to the latest Daily Kos poll out today ... Democrat Bill Owens [holds] a tiny one-point lead over Hoffman, 33 to 32 percent, with Republican Dede Scozzafava lagging behind in third with 21 percent of the vote."
Added the Washington Post's Chris Cillizza yesterday: "That survey ... jibes with other private polls done recently and a general sense among Democrats and Republicans that Hoffman is the momentum candidate and the race is his to lose in the final days." Just one week earlier, Hoffman had been in third place.
But here, as Cillizza goes on to imply, is the real shocker ...
Casual observers of a liberal bent from around the country -- to whom Begala's "tea-party"-laden fundraising plea was addressed -- have had good reason (given all the press coverage of Palin, Armey & Co.'s involvement) to believe that NY's 23rd Congressional District is perhaps idiosyncratically but absolutely infested with ideological far rightists. Hence Scozzafava's sure demise, Hoffman's sudden ascent.
But, as Cillizza notes, "At the root of Hoffman's strength, according to the Kos poll, are independents, the bloc of voters most coveted by both major parties heading into the November midterms" (my emphasis).
Sure, this is upstate New York and not New York City, but nevertheless the independent spread in the conservative's favor over the Democrat's is astounding: 47 percent to 28 percent, even though the Democratic presidential candidate carried the district in 2008.
For traditionalist Democrats, of course, this is not good. But for devout liberals, it's much worse.
Here's my take, which, I imagine, is scarcely unique: Should Hoffman pull this off, moderate to conservative Congressional Democrats -- those who rely most on middle-of-road independents for reelection -- will sense yet another broad electoral shift to the right. In brief, rather than be pulled in any progressive direction -- as conventional wisdom on the left has urged for their own protection -- they'll hunker down on the "right" side of every issue.
In fact, at this stage, even if Hoffman loses, he may have made a lasting point to the nervously conservative among Congressional Democrats.
Yes, the Hoffman-Scozzafava spat is an intriguing look into the GOP's family problems, but its ramifications could be far larger, and far more ominous, for liberal Democrats.
Buzz this on Buzzflash.net
Scozzafava endorses the Democrat Owens, Right-wing isolated...
This mornings latest development can only be seen as a circling of the wagons against the fascist Tea Party by the rational democratic parties, the Republicans and the Democrats...
Doug Hoffman's reaction to Dede's suspension of her campaign might have something to do with it, dripping as it was with the smug self-righteousness for which this movement is most well-known...
To wit:
"This morning's events prove what we have said for the last week; this campaign is a horserace between me and Nancy Pelosi's handpicked candidate, Bill Owens. At this moment, the Democratic Party, the Working Families Party, ACORN, Big Labor and pro-abortion groups are flooding the district with troops and they are flooding the airwaves with a million dollars worth of negative ads. They are throwing mud; they are trying to stop me."
So let's help 'ol Doug out, we wouldn't want him shown to be a liar, so we should send money and throw some mud at him! Buy a truckload of acorns and leave 'em layin' in the streets...
RGJ/Dallas112263
More center-right malarky from The Carp
You know what people hate? People who stick their finger in the wind to see which way it is blowing.
Any of these so-called bluedog candidates who are sensing a perceived shift to the right in the electorate and will then allow their principles to be guided by that notion--deserve to lose and lose big.
And they will.
Wanna know why? Republicans will not vote for them no matter what. Liberals will abandon them. That will then leave them in a position of needing to win a lion's share of independents--maybe 2/3's--to cobble together a coalition with a chance to win.
Not happening.
Any bluedog who does not have significant liberal support in an offyear election is doomed.
On the other hand, if you can find a guy like Grayson to run in a purple district, someone who stands up for his beliefs and is true to his core values, Independents respect a guy like that. He's not trying to snooker anybody. He's not trying to be what he thinks you want him to be. You know exactly what you're getting. And guess what? Republicans won't vote for him, but they respect him a helluva lot more than any whimpering bluedog. And the same can be said for Independents.
I don't necessarily disagree with your analysis in totality, Carp. You make some good points. But democrats that move to the right because of some cynical perception of the national mood are worthless anyway. So fu*k 'em.
What is much more interesting about NY-23--if Hoffman wins--is the extent to which the GOP has become radicalized in the northeast. I knew this was a phenomenon in the south and mountain west and various pockets all over, but it will be a surprise to me if the teabaggers pull this off in upstate NY.
If the teabaggers can win there, and enough so-called Independents buy into the nutball mania such a short time removed from a Bushian republican clusterfu*k of galactic proportions, it tells me that Independents--with notable exceptions to the rule--are as politically ignorant a bunch as can be imagined and are a long-term danger to the republic.
A country with this many dumb people cannot long survive, nor should it.
So-callled "independents" are contemptable
My longtime working definition of an American political "independent" is a Republican who is too lazy to volunteer to campaign for their favorite GOP candidate and too cheap to donate to their favorite GOP candidate.
Over the years I've added the addendum that, by and large, these same so-called "independents" are suburban, white and professional, or coordinator, middle class, i.e. mid-level corporate managers, doctors, lawyers, small business owners, insurance agents and so on. In short the base of the Glenn Beck "teabagger" movement.
They are motivated by greed. Even though the majority are comfortable economically and have incomes which puts them in the alternative minimum tax, AMT, bracket, they always want more. These are the folks who are always whining at the "tea parties," that "we know how to spend our money better than the government."
And they are motivated by envy. Curiously they envy and begrudge the poorest segments of society. Envious in that "independents" envision the poor living the life of Reilly on food stamps and welfare and begrudging ever one of their tax dollars they imagine going to support that imagined lifestyle.
What American "independents" secretly and really want is to live on The Big Rock Candy Mountain, paying no tax yet still receiving all the services and benefits only government can provide.
ET Spoon
what a republican victory would mean for liberal democracts
Liberal Democrats? Where are they hiding? I seen one true liberal in the Senate and one in the house. There is no such thing as a true liberal or true conservative, only the names with which the media decides to put on each individual. Everything has to be categorized in this country. It's like some kind of compulsion.
I live in a very red district in California represented now by McClintock (R-CA), a career pollitician if there ever was one. He was never a resident of this district until he decided that he liked all of those government perks so well that he just couldn't live without them, and ran to take Doolittle's place. Doolittle and wife have finally been indicted for something to do with Abramoff scandal. Something to do with money. I waited so long for this to happen that I have forgotten all of the details at the moment.
I voted for the Democrat, Charlie Brown, who ran against both of them and lost. A very conservative democrat who was pro-life and pro-gun. The reason that I voted for him was that I believed he would work for the good of the district. I also believed that he would work to help veterans, because he is a veteran of the Air Force and the first Gulf War. It is my opinion that veterans are getting the royal shaft although I see improvement since the idiot Rumsfeld stepped down.
Whoever said that people vote poorly was right on the money. Republicans in this district could not stand the thought of a democrat representing their interests so they vote for a guy that has no idea about the district. According to the local Democratic party here, our esteemed representative has never voted for one bill presented in the House to date. Because OMG, he might vote for something that the democrats presented even if it would help the district. What I really think the problem is that he is completely clueless about the problems of the district. It is huge so say the least, and is very diverse in many, many ways. The guy was from southern California and is now representing northern California! If he wasn't bought and paid for by the monied interests, I don't know what else it could be.
The big problem is that everyone expects a quick fix to problems that have taken at least 30 years to create. There isn't going to be any magic wand-waving and fairy dust sprinkled to solve the problems. It is going to take leadership by both the legislature and the executive and patience on the part of the electorate.
But because the voters are so angry, they keep voting with their emotions instead of with their brains. Why are the voters angry? Frustration that nothing seems to go to the ones footing the bill. I can see the voters returning Congress back to the republicans, because things are not getting fixed fast enough. Instead of developing a little patience, they will get angry and punish the incumbents. We saw that happen 15 years ago, and it will happen again. There is no fool like a fool filled with self-righteous anger when he or she enters the voting booth.
So Organize?
What you discribe is exactly the sort of problem we had in Florida's 8th distirct with a tobacco lawyer demagoging his way into the district and then hiring his own lobbysts to Gerrymander a personal district.
Alan Grayson got folk out to areas that had never met a Democrat and got their votes on chutzpah alone (something you might have noticed he has in abundance) and we got a real liberal Democrat in a Gerrymandered R district, who has now scared off any serious contender, even as they were sharpening their knives in July.
If the Gang Of Pirates think that the only good Democrat is a dead Democrat, it is not any part of Bipartisan to accommodate them and roll over and play dead.
I'm not sure this country will tolerate such an extremist party
Palin's popularity is fading. And I think most people are at least moderate. Tea baggers are a joke and do not have this huge following. They are Glen Beck people. Hell, even 5 deferment Cheney is supporting Hutchinson. I think this group will implode. They may get money, but they need a huge tent and they don't have it. Even the Republican party doesn't have a huge tent. It's a teepee. Sometimes I just can't handle all the negativity from the left.
THE CARPY IS FALLING! THE CARPY IS FALLING! RUN AND HIDE!
Carpy, with such an extremely depressing and fearful attitude as yours, how do you ever get out of bed in the morning?
Or do you write your rubbish under the covers?
NY-23 Race
When are you folks in the media going to call a spade a spade? These clowns on the far right are fascists, pure and simple. Go look up your history books (and plenty of them are NOT revised). The extreme far left are anarchists and nihilists; the far right is fascist. Go look up the meanings as all these words are alive and well in American English.
I happen to live in Alan Grayson's district, FL08. It went solid for him last year. A vaste majority of the American population is not stupid and is sick and tired of extremism! It was the same deal in 1968. Go check it out. We want our country repaired and that WILL NOT happen with extremists, corrupt or not!
People don't understand what their vote means!
Changing Dynamic...
The morning news brings a completely different look to the donnybrook in the New York's 23rd District... The withdrawal of Scozzafava, IMHO, effectively isolates the Radicals and forces a clear choice between the more moderate Democrat and the Tea Party.
We, progressives and liberals, have nothing to fear from this confrontation, in fact it is essential. Our real opponent, the Corptocracy, is purposely sewing discord and fanning the flames of this so-called rebellion as a diversion and a tactical feint designed to provoke the Democrats into a futile response, a debate with the chimera of unreason, exposing both factions as fools and providing a convenient media backdrop to the real power play taking place in the Senate, a development that will see the gutting of the Democrat's 60 seat majority in a betrayal by the "moderates" such as Bayh, Nelson and Lieberman...
In this obvious political re-alignment that we now are experiencing, there is greater opportunity for progress than there is risk of disaster, that disaster is already here and if the Democratic Party continues to embrace these "moderates" and allows them perks and privileges while they vote against our agenda then the Republicans won't be the only Party having a family feud.
RGJ/Dallas112263
If you don't like the weather...
Just wait around for it to change...
This morning's news is just confirmation of what I said above, the Right is isolated and the choice is now very clear...
Here for your erudition are the reactions of Mr. Owens and Mr. Hoffman to the news that Scozzafava was suspending her campaign:
Mr. Owens was conciliatory and looking toward the best interests of the District:
"Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava has been an honorable public servant for years now and I have a tremendous amount of respect for her and her commitment to her principles. While we disagree on certain issues, we share a dedication to serving the best interests of Upstate New York and the Obama administration's efforts to get our economy back on track. Those interests will always be my highest priority."
Mr Hoffman was smug and focused immediately on the usual right-wing bogeymen:
"This morning's events prove what we have said for the last week; this campaign is a horserace between me and Nancy Pelosi's handpicked candidate, Bill Owens. At this moment, the Democratic Party, the Working Families Party, ACORN, Big Labor and pro-abortion groups are flooding the district with troops and they are flooding the airwaves with a million dollars worth of negative ads. They are throwing mud; they are trying to stop me."
Who would you endorse if you were Dede?
RGJ/Dallas112263
What A Stretch!
The fact that NY-23 is an intellectual backwater subject to the juvenile whims of the voters there (their only criteria for selecting representation appears to be based on the popularity of those clelbrities endorcing the various candidates) doesn't make for a total rout of Democratic progressivism. You will have to demonstrate this claim of yours in other districts with demonstrably higher intellects before I will consider it valid.
Anyone who thinks that Hoffman is anything but a conservative puppet, one whose very words emanate only from the daily talking point memo because he has not mental ability to formulate his own, should go watch him on YouTube. He's another Dubya, only his delivery is weaker. And Carpenter wants to call this dolt a threat???
It's Buzzflash Bash Independents Day
I am an Independent and former Democrat. I haven't seen a Republican candidate that I could support for many years now. The Democrats have morphed into being Republicans with a happy face. There is little difference between the parties now. Obama's "change" is giving us a third Bush term. The health care "debate" started with Democrats giving up on every substantial reform before the talking even started. Obama and his party are doing little to accomplish anything and they have to get Republican permission to do anything.
Both parties in Congress are filled with a bunch of corrupt corporate clowns. I will not be voting for either of those parties next year. I am fortunate to live in California where I have several choices, not just the Republican or Democrat that corporate America has agreed to allow on the ballot.
The Republicans and Democrats are controlled by corporate bribes, not voters. I won't be giving either party my vote until that changes.
American "Independents" Mostly Are Those Voters
who believe that last lie they were most emphatically told. They typically are voters who are the least informed, worst informed, most pliable, least intelligent, most likely to be swayed by polemic...
Mainly because of them and their voting proclivities, Obama's probably a one-termer.
Joe is a "Diamond in the rough"
JGBellHimself
To say that poor ol' Joe is wrong is hardly new(s)..., what is is that he is absolutely arse backwards - giving a newer meaning to turning the other cheek.
In Political campaigning there were/are/alway will be...: "Saints", "Sinners" and "Save-ables".
Contrary to logic, and poor ol' Joe, the Saints AND the Sinners will vote the way they DO vote disirregardless of whether their candidate/opponent is Jaysus Christobal, or Jude-us Iscarryott. We have tried it, that is what they WILL do.
Oddly, it was/is the "Independent", actually the word "Progressive" is more accurate, voter who is the one - The Bastard/Bitch - who actually LOOKS at the candidates, listens to what is said, what "They" are saying about them, and what the candidate stands for or against, and what the incumbent DID, as opposed to what they say.
When W lied to U.S. about WMD's, as did Tricky Dick Nixon before him, and U.S., it was the Independents that deserted the R party. Even if some of the "True Believers", no pun intended, stayed home or did not vote, it was the people who were prepared to admit to themselves that they had been wrong, or lied to, that changed..., the election.
For poor ol' Joe to get back out of the rough, will require him to make a chip, or is that also a cheap, shot..., out into the Fair Way. Let U.S. all now pray..., that HIS Gawd will show him The (Fair?) Way.
God Help Us
I am writing from Jim Cooper's (D-TN) district, a very liberal blue district represented by one of the most visible Blue Dogs.
God help us from yet another Blue Dog. What good is a Blur Dog? Yeah, you can have their votes 90% of the time when you don't need them. But when it is crunch time, there they are in the caucus carrying water for the Republicans, and more specifically corporations. Look, I understand and support Blue Dogs who are running in reddish-purple districts. They have to do what they have to do. But all too often, Blue Dogs, such as Jim Cooper, represent very liberal districts. Usually, these types of Blue Dogs have been bought and paid for by corporations.
Those of you who "ain't from around here" probably do not know that Nashville is one of the major national hubs of healthcare. it is anchored by Hospital Corporation of America, which was founded by the frist Family, as in billionaire and former senator Bill Frist. A huge plethora of healthcare companies have spun off from HCA. What is more, many of those same people formed Corrections Corporation of America, you the prison management guys. So, who do you think Cooper really represents in the healthcare debate?
My best guess is that the Democrat candidate in NY will need to be a Blue Dog to win and a corporate Blue Dog like Cooper to hold on to his seat. I would rather see a rabid radical conservative representing the minority party than another useless Blue Dog.
"Independent" Voters ALWAYS Vote the Critique
Jay Diamond
The fact that "Independent" voters in NY 23rd are breaking for the right wing candidate is no surprise to me.
"Independent" voters are voters who waffle like willows in the wind because they have no coherent philosophy of life and politics.
P.M.....Are YOU an "Independent" ?
What are the chances that you will vote for the Palin Party candidate in any future election ?
It is not likely because you are an educated and thoughtful person who has a clue.
"Independents" who vote for Bush one year and Obama the next, tend not to be people with a coherent political philosophy that transcends the last attack ad that they watch.
In truth, the vaunted "Indpendents" are easily manipulated people who most always vote for the party out of power because, lacking an informed political philosophy, they tend to naively believe the loudest critique of whomever is currently in office.
They most always vote for the challengers because whatever is currently perceived as "wrong" by the corporate media and talk radio overwhelms them in their absence of knowledge.
"Independents" also vote on the basis of a candidate's appearance, family, clothing, and toothy smile.
They are easily swayed by superficial nonsense and the equally uninformed opinions of their acquaintances.
And when the big winds of talk radio blow loud and strong on every station on their dials, lightweight voters can be swept up and thrown around like twigs and debris.