I read this --"Experts see double-digit Dem losses" -- yesterday evening, and this morning I'm still scratching my head, asking, Would its realization make any difference of real consequence? Just as disconcerting is the compulsion to even ask the question; that, in itself, is a realization of worst fears.
On to the specifics, which begin with that "small"-- but expanding -- "universe of political analysts," writes the Politico, "who closely follow House races" and already envision something of a bloodbath in that chamber in 2010.
Casualties, forecast as "moderate to heavy," might even approach the unthinkable of just a few short months ago: a near-majority triumph for the GOP, an idealess lump of disarrayed stragglers which only the Democratic Party, in all its own competitive disarray, could possibly re-elevate.
Charlie Cook, keeper of the respected Cook Political Report, was one of the first handicappers to get the speculation rolling and tongues wagging, having written, in an urgent "update" less than two weeks ago, a rather jarring opening: "the situation this summer has slipped completely out of control for President Obama and congressional Democrats."
Charlie is not given to idle hyperbole, so heads went up when his assessment of an "eerie sense of déjà vu" came down: The odds of those moderate to heavy losses, he wrote -- more than 20 seats, that is, and neurotically reminiscent of Bill Clinton's first midterm elections -- are now equal to the odds of light ones.
And, at about the same time, Nate Silver, of the also respected 538.com, was telling conventioneering Netrooters that Republicans have somewhere "between a 25 and 33 percent chance of winning back control of the House."
"A lot of Democratic freshmen and sophomores," acknowledged Silver in a follow-up with the Politico, "will be running in a much tougher environment than in 2006 and 2008," largely because 2010's environment will lack the Democratic-vote-getting presence of George W. Bush.
Plus, there's that complacency thing. "We have volunteers who worked really hard in 2006 and in 2008 for Obama," continued Silver, "but it’s less compelling [for them] to preserve the majority."
Yet -- and here's the real kicker, suggested in this column's first paragraph -- what many of the party faithful are surely wondering is, A majority for what?
Democrats in the last two cycles ran genuine national campaigns of "Throw the bums out, so that we, collectively, can advance real change," which is what Republicans also said in 1994. The difference was, Republicans meant it, and their leadership was never shy about enforcing it. The Democratic leadership's attitude? Every member a King.
Yes, yes, I know, there's a world of organizational and temperamental difference between Dems and the GOP, starting with the latter's more effortless ideological unity, which considerably eases the leadership's burden. But have you seen, or, rather, can you even imagine the current House leadership snapping Blue Dog bones over a health-care vote in the exquisitely brutal manner in which Tom DeLay did over the Medicare drug vote?
What's more, the 2006 and '08 national elections were, in message and spirit, more top-down than bottom-up. That is, it was less a matter of voters telling the Democratic Party that they wish to appoint it their agent of change than the Democratic Party -- collectively -- promising voters to be that agent.
Never did one hear, throughout those buoyant campaign seasons, the party's leadership or the DNC or the DCCC or the DSCC say, Vote for us and we'll deliver change all right, except of course whenever enough Blue Dogs or New Democrats or whatever ensemble of purely self-interested jackasses says we can't.
No, national campaigns are in the minds of voters akin to parliamentary elections in which the electorate votes not for a candidate, but for an advertised concept. And in 2007 and 2009, the advertisers pulled a bait and switch -- which, in turn, has the unhappy effect of really pissing off consumers (and generating headlines like, "Experts see double-digit Dem losses").
Still, I concede that in this column I'm committing a common error of liberal scribes: I'm calling for what should be -- party unity -- rather than acknowledging and somehow coping with the immutable, immovable forces that are -- district-by-district pockets of self-preservationist intransigence; the selling out of the national good for personal political survival. Saideth Walter, That's the way it is.
Having conceded that, let me add, however, one corrective to the above: Blue Dogs et al at least think they're engaging in self-preservationism. Yet I'm hardly alone in characterizing that behavior as a hefty gamble; which is to say, it may be that when it comes to, say, health-care reform, they're profoundly misreading their constituencies; that the homefolks are indeed more eager for real reform -- you know, sort of like they said during the recent election -- than their representatives know.
Which is further to say, if they do suffer moderate to heavy losses in 2010, it might in fact be the result of anxious timidity. Sometimes, even in an organically conservative nation like ours, a little boldness pays off.
So we leave off where we began. If the Democratic House fails to strike and hold a bold note on health-care reform and then heads into the rapacious maw of double-digit losses, would the revised Congressional balance sheet make any difference of any real consequence? In short, would we give a damn?
More fear mongering Carpy?
How strange that nothing is mentioned about the drop in popularity being caused primarily by the progressive dissatifaction with the Blue Dog DINO-Fascists.
Once those unpopular traitors, as well as Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid, lose their Democratic primaries to REAL Democrats, the REAL Democrats will easily beat their Republican opponents in the General Election.
Of course, just to hedge their bets, the Democrats could bring back Howard Dean, the man most instrumental in securing a Democratic majority in both houses in Congress as well putting Barack Obama and his side kick, Rahm "Back Stabber" Emanual in the White House.
"You can't win elections by being Republican Light!"
~Howard Dean~
It IS the Senate that is the Problem
Senators get elected and join the elite social rank of the national scene. They get intoxicated with the heady world of indulgent wealth and the fast paced, not able to relax and think, world they have entered. Their inner core KNOWS this is not the way to live, which is to say there is a little voice screaming inside them saying, "This is WRONG!", but they chase the Dragon (with us it's drugs, with them it's money) until they get their next FIX.
While they're chasing their dragon, they are NEGLECTING THEIR DUTIES OF LEADERSHIP. That is why the Senate is not producing statesmen like Ted Kennedy anymore. And when those older folks are gone we won't have a nation anymore
THE ANSWER IS ELECTION REFORM. WE NEED TO GET CORPORATE MONEY OUT OF ELECTIONS. To do this we the people MUST accept responsibility and PAY FOR OUR OWN ELECTIONS.
In other words, we need to buy the senate money whores away from the wealthy. How can we do that? QUIT giving the wealthy our money. Let the economy collapse so the rich will be put more on an equal footing with us. If we can't pull them off the mountain of money, we can blow up the mountain by not feeding it. Feed the Progressive Senate Candidates instead of paying your Cable Bill.
You get what you pay for.
As for the immediate issue of Health Care? WHAT IF we don't get what we want, national public health care? We will count the heads and throw out of office EVERY SINGLE DEMOCRAT WHO DIDN'T SUPPORT THIS. Why? Because WE HAVE THE VOTES.
Truly. It ONLY TAKES 51 VOTES.
RAM IT THROUGH.
When the thugs whine that it's 1/6th of the economy? Tell them, 'SO WHAT! You didn't count the money when you caused the WARS. They're more than 1/6th of the economy. Military uses up about HALF the value of our economy. And WE didn't get a choice in that. So YOU don't get a choice with this. This is a MORAL CAUSE. Healthcare is a HUMAN RIGHT. Then close your reply with these three words which should be shouted by every person wanting health care from sea to shining sea:
SHAME ON YOU!
What's needed is two Constitutional amendments
Agreed, getting corporate campaign money out of politics will go a long way to getting the United States back on track, and government back in the hands of "We the People."
Toward that end what this country needs is two good amendments to the Constitution: first an amendment striping corporations of their 14th Amendment rights granted, erroneously and perhaps illegally, in the 1886 Supreme Court Ruling Santa Clara County v. Southern Pacific Railroad; secondly an amendment for the public financing of all political campaigns from the presidency on down to local.
ET Spoon
Dems mistakenly think that if they are 2% better than GOP...
they can hold on to the majorities they enjoy now.
It will be tough to energize donors and volunteers by saying "we are corrupt and incompetent but the GOP is much worse."
That is a recipe for losing or holding on by a narrow margin.
Democrats should not only choose to be the progressive party, but take a page from Grover Norquist and the GOP and figure out how to crush the base of financial support for the GOP. Norquist made no bones about going after unions and trial lawyers, both big donors to Democrats.
Democrats should do the same and figure out which industries keep the GOP alive and simply nationalize them.
They should do the same with hedge funds and investment banks that act as kingmakers by shifting their support from one party to the other. Figure out which of their behaviors are most lucrative and at the same time destructive to society as a whole, and nationalize or criminalize it. And figure out a way to put the neoliberals economists like Larry Summers, Ben Bernanke, and Tim Geithner in prison. Better yet, pass a new economic terrorism law that makes it treason to advocate for policies that thwart real democracy, harm people's abilities to support their families, and lead to actual deaths.
Professorsmartass.com
It's the Senate that's the problem
Last I heard, the House has the votes to pass healthcare reform with a public option. It's the Blue Dogs in the Senate who are the problem. I think your points are correct but mis-directed.
Too Little, Too Late
'Nuf said.
Dig In Those SpikeHeels
I have been saying for a long time that we do not have real politics in this country. We have one party with two wings, much like the one party rule of the PRI in Mexico which lasted for 75 years. It is high time that Progressives and any other sane members of this whacky outfit called the USA formed their own party. A third party would have a difficult time in the kind of political system we have inherited but if it had all the weight of Progressives behind it, it could hold a balance of power in Congress. "Democrats" would have to out themselves by voting with their rightist brethren in the Republican Party. It could mean a realignment that in the end would provide the kind of leadership this country had better get sooner than later. It is obvious that the Democratic Party is useless but for the perks and privileges it provides for those pols who work the system for themselves. That we need to have this conversation with the first Democrat African-American President elected with large majorities in both houses testifies to the absolute necessity of "trowing dose bums out."
We don't really want change
If progressives/liberals wanted change they would stop voting for the Democrats that screw us election after election after election ad naseum. Congrgessional Democrats know progressives and liberals will vote for them, no matter what, so they can accept their bribes, do what their corporate owners pay them to do and ignore us.
As long as the sheeple continue to go in on election day and vote for the Democrat, no matter what, all will be right with the world...maybe...someday...hopefully...they promise! Trust them! If they don't start listening to the voters, US, we need to find more receptive candidates in other parties. Democrats only care about us on election day and they have proved it big time this year.
Losing Power in Washington
IT'S TOO LATE TO OUST "BLUE DOG" DEMOCRATS THIS YEAR BUT IT'S NOT TOO LATE TO GET RID OF HARRY REID. HE IS ONE OF THE REASONS WHY DEMOCRATS HAVEN'T MUSTERED A COMMON MESSAGE IN THE SENATE. HIS FURRY COAT COLOR IS NOT JUST BLUE, BUT DARK BLUE!
IT'S TRUE! WE DESERVE THE GOVERNMENT WE GET! THE UNDISCIPLINED, CHAOTIC DEMOCRATIC PARTY HAS DRIFTED TO THE RIGHT, IN LINE WITH CONSERVATIVE PRINCIPLES AND NEARLY ENDORSING THEIR PLATFORM. AND WHO'S FAULT IS IT? OURS!!!
IT'S TIME FOR A NEW PROGRESSIVE PARTY IN THE LAND OR A COMPLETE HOUSE CLEANING OF WHAT WE HAVE SINCE THERE IS LITTLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO MAJOR POLITICAL PARTIES ANYMORE.
AND IT'S TIME IN 2012, IF OBAMA DOESN'T HAVE THE GONADS, TO ELECT A TRULY PROGRESSIVE PRESIDENT WHO WILL PASSIONATELY MOVE THE AMERICAN AGENDA BACK TO THE LEFT OF CENTER, STANDING UP FOR THE DISENFRANCHISED, DISABLED, AND DISHEARTENED POOR IN THIS COUNTRY.
campaign AGAINST them?
I've written a letter to both my CO senators - yes, a letter. On paper. Printed. Signed. In an envelope with a stamp.
I have promised them, that if they don't vote for what I expect them to vote for, (either single payer health care, or at least health care with a strong Public Option), they not only do NOT get my vote, but I will bust my posterior CAMPAIGNING AGAINST THEM.
Now I wonder if that will even get noticed.
I know they take us for granted. I know they expect us to vote for them again and again and again. No matter what they do (or don't do) for us. They figure once they get in there, they are impossible to get un-seated.
We forget, that it is WE, the people, who put them in there in the first place, and it is up to WE, the people, to either keep them there, or to discard them like the trash they are.
Why don't we put our money where our mouth is, and campaign against the useles boobs, who do not deserve our votes? If we vote again for those who let us down, we may as well vote for repubies, who at least would not disappoint us by working against us just like we suspected in the first place.
I think it is time. If your Democrat craps up and works bi-partisan wonders to please his/her corporate masters, crap on him/her, and vote SOME OTHER PARTY.
campaign AGAINST them
Absolutely! Why are such idiots to keep elect not only these morons, but personified immorality? Intrinsic in their behavior (after deluding us to get into office where incumbents run wild and think they have a hold on office until death) is self-interests! They don't care what we think! I'm here, you're not, that's that, and just shut up....They have the franking privilege, incessent media coverage, lobbyist money coming out of their ears, and of course, party backing (that's if they don't become rogues and do a little independent thinking).
We, the people have the power, but why don't we use it? Get rid of these scoundrels, impose term limits and elect those who will back this project, end lobbying, and impose penalties if campaign promises are broken. What on God's Green Earth is wrong with us? Why can't we do something right for a change?
To sum it up in a
To sum it up in a nut-shell..."99.99% of all politicians suck"...and that's a conservative estimate...
big surprise there
Its becoming all too clear that the democrats, with very few exceptions, are working to preserve the status quo. This includes the president and his "team" of wall street types, like Rahmbo, who have no problem telling people who care about the direction of this nation, to sit down and shut up. Sometimes it seems like the entire political process in the US is all a big made for TV charade, and the elections process is as meaningless as the stupid reality shows that enthrall so many ignorant americans. Our republic is as rotten to the core as any in history, and can only decline in the current state of affairs. If the majority in congress changes hands it wont make much difference. The staged fighting between the "liberal" white house, and the "conservative" congress, will make great TV. The big money will get to keep on robbing the rest of us, the networks will get ratings and lots of ad money, the politicians in both partys will get more rewards for maintaining the status quo, and we the people will get to watch our society descend into third world chaos. Nothing will change in this country until the people have nothing left to lose. When the people have had enough and finally take to the streets, they will be met by tens of thousands of crazy right wing goons who are stockpiling weapons and ammunition as I type this, and are primed by hate media and ready for a bloodbath. We are told by those defending the defenders of the status qou, that we shouldnt expect those we elect to lead, that its all up to us, that we need to organize blablabla. We did all that and won, again, only to find that winning is the same as losing, because both teams are the same team and the process is a scrimmage and not a real game. Maybe those in denial about our "leaders" will finally get it when the congress passes "health care reform" that does nothing but force 47 million more people to buy insurance from thieves, and maintain Pharmas right to fix prices and hold old folks to ransom for their medicine. Or maybe they will get it when the Obama DOJ scapegoats a couple low level CIA operatives for all the crimes of the Bushies, and lets the good ol boys off the hook. Their are many other examples of selling us out, but I doubt that it will matter to those defenders of the defenders. They are just doing their job keeping things as they are.
The Blue Dog Brain Cramp
The 1st instinct a blue dog dem from a purple district has is to run like hell away from a democratic president. They tried it in 1994 and look where it got them. To the degree you are rewarded by centist dems and moderate republicans for your party intransigence, it will be more than offset by the loss of progressive activists who vote and raise money and knock on doors and will not lift a finger for you after your betrayal of the central plank of democratic orthodoxy. Blue dogs need to fight their 1st instinct on the issue of the public option for health care because this issue to most progressives is intractable from the idea of what it means to be a democrat. If you can't hold the line on this one then you're dead meat to liberals from here on out. We'll never forget it. Ever. No matter what you do legislatively for the rest of your careers (assuming you have one after 2010). So just a piece of humble advice--ignore your 1st instinct, support the public option, support the president and the party, do the right thing. You'll be rewarded for it. Pussy out, and you'll most likely be looking for a new line of work.
Yes, let's go back to those wonderful days of yesteryear
Oh, boy, I can't wait two or six years of an Obama administration just like Bill Clinton's sans blowjobs! That'll get this country going!
And when enough people are fed-up with both major political parties they'll start voting for the Greens!!! Yeaaaaaaaa!!!
So riddle me this: Why haven't the Greens gotten anyone elected to office yet? O.K., O.K. I know the two big corrupt corporate parties stack the deck against them, yaddy-yaddy-yaddah.
How come we aren't talking about President St. Ralph Nader. O'yeah, the two big corrupt corporate parties stacked the deck against him, yaddy-yaddy-yaddah.
You know what, I really am beginning to think you people on the ideologically pure left like the status quo just as much as the reactionary right. I mean, if nothing changes, and if nobody even gets a chance to do anything about it you guys on your college campuses, neo-hippie communes, cubicles in an IT company's office can continue feeling morally superior to the rest of we mere mortals. In that you guys are little different than the fetus-hugging, Jesus-lovers on the far right in that you have your security blanket of certainties, i.e. Democrats are corrupt, Republican are worse so let's vote socialist and insure nothing ever gets done.
You know, Jimmy Carter was right. America does have government as good as its people. That being the case, we're one sorry lot. And that old saying is correct: Vote and the choice is your's, don't vote and the choice is their's. Not voting or voting Green in '10 isn't going to result in anything positive. The best way is get active in the Democratic Party, get control of the platform committee, get progressive candidates and challenge conservative Dems in the primary.
Sorry, all you ideologically pure left elitists, but that's how things work in the USA.
ET Spoon
Democrats are like the old automakers
Most Democrats, like the old Big Three of Detroit before the fall, always assume that it is in their best interests to do the wrong thing (believing that good guys always finish last). Just as the Big Three refused to focus on producing good fuel economy or on reliable vehicles for so many decades, the Democrats refuse to focus on improving the lives of the great majority of their constituents. They will do the quid pro quo with special interests and use lies, misdirection, misinformation, and distraction to try to keep the majority of the voters in line. And I am afraid that the Dems are headed for a similar fate as the Big Three.
Oh PM, not you too!!! Treating we the people like SPECTATORS
Oh my goodness, PM, if we lose you, we are toast. You are one of the few that seemed to get it.
Get what? THAT CONGRESS DOESN'T MATTER. THAT THE PRES DOESN'T MATTER;
THAT ACTIVISM-TILL-OUR-DEMANDS-ARE-MET IS OUR ONLY HOPE. OUR ONLY HOPE.
This is the immutable physics. With virtually no exceptions ALL PROGRESSIVE
ADVANCES HAVE COME THROUGH CITIZEN ACTION -NOT ELECTIONS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:
CIVIL RIGHTS, SUFFRAGE, ELIMINATING CHILD LABOR, 40 HOUR WORK WEEK,
WOMEN'S RIGHTS, GAY RIGHTS....
CIVIL ACTION. PERIOD. OR RETHUG / CORP(se) VICTORY.
PM - STOP DIVERTING OUR ATTENTION FROM THE
ONLY SOLUTION - US, WE-THE-SHEEPLE BECOMING,
HMMMM. PEOPLE, AS WE WERE DURING THE
LAST ELECTION CYCLE.
"I ask you to believe not only in MY ability
to bring CHANGE to Washington. I ask
you to believe in YOURS." President Obama.
THIS WAS THE "DEAL." AND WE'VE
VIOLATED THE DEAL. NOW WE LIVE
UP TO IT, OR GAME OVER.
PM, PLEASE DON'T MAKE THIS
MISTAKE ANY MORE.
WE'RE OUT OF TIME FOR
SUCH NONSENSE.
Typing this to you from my post at the White House (http://Prop1.org),
Start
ps: Your TITLE "GOT IT!" -
Frankly, dear Democrats, !!!WE!!! just might not give a damn
Please write THAT next time, and ever after.
"WE'VE" violated the deal?
Have you seen what Obama's done (and hasn't done) in the past 8 months? Maybe the campaign slogans should have been "Hope (I'll be a leader, not a follower)", or maybe "Change (if you make me change it and do all the work for me)".
Nahhhhhh, .... I guess you're right. That's not fair.
There's no way they would've fit it on a campaign sign.
If only there were a
If only there were a progressive platform to guide the marginal opportunists in the party, and which might be used as a guage for reward or correction within Democratic ranks. Who might we expect to present and promulgate such a platform? Wow - tough question.
Obama has been shamefully weak in regard to to this issue. He gave away every scrap of progressive leverage at the outset of the debate when he called single payer advocates "extremists" and refused to consider such a concept on the basis of such an admittedly sensible measure being too "disruptive". Since then he has been doing nothing but nibbling at the human end of corporatism, trying to keep at least the language of the "reform" from looking too overtly fascistic.
Face it, somebody in the last half-year has sat Obama down and very effectively introduced him to his real masters, and he has been heeling dutifuly ever since.
A progressive platform already exists!
A progressive platform is right here: http://www.ilgp.org/about/2008-common-platform-for-green-party-congressional-candidates
Now that's a REAL progressive platform! Can you imagine Democrats supporting this? Of course not -- they only pretend to be progressives to get your vote! Obama is probably the most visible example of this.
"Democrats" have been fooling progressives to vote for them since Bill Clinton in 1992. Obama has learned well from Clinton: Show the liberals that you UNDERSTAND the problems, and it doesn't matter if you don't do anything to SOLVE the problems.
Clinton said "I feel your pain". Liberals voted for him, and he saddled us with NAFTA, which CAUSED a lot more pain. No matter, the liberals voted for him AGAIN in 1996.
They'll do this as long as gullible liberals continue to believe the Democratic Party represents their values. It's easy to be fooled because some Democrats really are liberals, like Kucinich and Waxman. But the Democratic Party as a whole is a fully-owned subsidiary of corporate America.
Want to change things? Vote Green!
In a Word "No!"
No! I wouldn't give a damn if every blue dog Democrat was thrown under the bus in 2010. In fact, I am doing everything I can to make it happen.
Vote Green!
Well you can symbolically throw them under the bus by voting for the Green Party. It would serve them right.
It would also be a warning to ALL Blue Dogs (and other traitors) that if they continue to work against citizens' interests, they'll lose still MORE votes to the Green Party. Up to now, there have been absolutely no consequences when so-called Democrats stab us in the back.
It's high time to make consequences for the traitors who choose corporate profits over OUR health care. Their campaigns are well-financed by the insurance and pharmaceutical corporations in return for blocking single-payer and a public option. In reality, they're selling out OUR health care to finance THEIR campaigns. Dogs indeed.
Vote Green.
Greens.....or Yellow Dogs?
Greens should know..... and I think they probably do.
You build anything....especially a political party, from the bottom up.
You don't build from top down. Nadar-style.
My resources will continue to go to Yellow Dog Democrats.
Greens need to learn a basic card game.
Alan8,
My wife and I are looking at getting involved with the local green party, but I think they need to learn to play cards.
The game is Spades. If a player has a weak hand, say a 10 is their highest card, it doesn't make sense to play the 10 against the kings and aces. You play the 10 against the 6's and 7's.
What I mean is that if the party has a strong candidate (let's use Nader as an example, although I am by no means a fan). Nader didn't have enough support to win the presidency, but I bet he could have won a congressional seat. The presidency could have come later. Same with Perot.
The greens should focus on state seats. Then national later. They should bargain with the democrats for more progressive candidates in exchange for support. If the candidate isn't progressive enough, let the republicans have the seat. As has been stated here, there isn't enough difference now to justify supporting them.
I disagree with the person who said persuing a third party is a waste and we should get involved at the local level with the democrats. Do you know that they want $$$ for your involvement now? The way to get involved (unless you volunteer and rarely see the candidate) is these "meet and greet" dinners that start at $250 per person.
Richard
Greens can run for multiple offices
Running a Green for president also advances citizens' interests.
1. It makes the presidential candidate accountable too. If he needs state X, which is a close race, he's less likely to back pro-corporate, anti-citizen measures if he knows the state X voters can choose a Green.
2. It gives the Greens more visibility than state seats. The Libertarians and Socialists run presidential candidates -- Why not the Greens too? And the Green Party is the third-largest party in the US.
This by no means rules out going for state seats; I think both help to promote progressive politics.
Unlike cards, we can play our best "card" (our vote) in multiple races.