Wall Street Might Be Obama's Easy Street

The polls have already completed their pendulous journey back to mid-August territory -- the latest is this morning's New York Times/CBS News: "the contest appear[s] to be roughly where it was before the two conventions," 48-43, advantage Obama --but this time they may land more decisively, and better yet, more permanently.

Naturally, given the straitjacketing effect of the electoral college it's a state-by-state -- and not national -- slugfest, but the aggregate polling numbers do provide some reasonable peek into what you might call a loftier macrosentiment.

And there, at the summit, it's again looking good for Barack Obama. We'll need another week or two to see how things are shaking out with a bit more stability in the key swing states -- especially Ohio and Colorado -- but the national polling pendulum has swung far and fast enough to prompt some analysts, such as Charlie Cook of the National Journal, to ask: "Is another momentum change in the making"?

Cook notes the artificiality of John McCain's recent uptick. Aside from the usual convention bounce, McCain benefited from what appears to have been one of the shortest-lived manias in modern political history: the Palin Effect. Now, writes Cook, "A legitimate question is whether portrayals of Palin as a petty and vindictive elective official who fattens up the public payroll with old schoolmates and makes questionable policy decisions is permeating the public consciousness." The legitimate answer, Mr. Cook, is yes.

There was also that Russia-Georgia conflict that allowed McCain to once again morph into some kind of geopolitical Charles Atlas. But that, too, is already going the way of sanity, to McCain's deep regret, and now he must wait uncertainly for another bloody shirt to wave and send to the electoral cleaners. Poor little neocon.

But the real game changer, of course, has been the capital markets' meltdown of historic proportions -- and for McCain, even disproportionate proportions, since, as Cook writes , it "pull[s] the focus even further away from national security, McCain's strength."

(This is neither here nor there as far as this piece on Obama-McCain polling goes, but I can't resist mentioning it in relation to Wall Street's woes and our "Two Americas." Last night I watched Hank Greenberg, former CEO of A.I.G., on Charlie Rose. Mr. Greenberg remains a major stockholder in A.I.G., and Charlie asked him what the recent troubles had done to his personal holdings there in terms of current value. They are, said Mr. Greenberg, "virtually worthless" now. You know what he considers "virtually worthless"? About "one hundred million dollars." That had to be the shortest definition of plutocratic obscenity I've ever heard.)

Still, a game changer isn't worth much without a change agent, and here, Obama is finally getting up to long-anticipated speed. It wasn't fast enough for some -- or many, or most, actually -- but it may be that Obama's primal strategy of patience and stealth was, after all, the best of all possible strategies from the beginning. Early peaking can be an electoral killer. Just ask Hillary, and you may soon be able to knowingly ask John and Sarah, too.

Jason Horowitz of the New York Observer encapsulates what seems like the sudden onslaught: "The Obama campaign is dialing up the candidate’s level of aggression … Mr. Biden is no longer talking about what good friends he is with Mr. McCain … [and] the Obama campaign [has, with 100 percent Truthometer accuracy] aired an ad calling the McCain campaign 'dishonorable.'" That latter attack slices right into the heart of McCain's greatest strength, even more than national security or his self-promoted "maverick" image.

I cited Horowitz's encapsulation over others for a specific reason; and that is, he also notes an occasionally scary downside to Obama's assaults. Observes Horowitz: "He [says] things like, 'Over the last few years, commercial banks and thrift institutions were subject to guidelines on subprime mortgages that did not apply to mortgage brokers and companies.'"

Oh Jesus, I hope Obama doesn't lapse into high rhetorical levels of analytical competence like that during the presidential debates. Just say the fat cats were shafting the little guy while McCain and his fellow deregulators were partying right along with them. And leave it at that. Even that dumbed-down line possesses an undesirable five-syllable word.

But overall, Obama is getting better at the game-changing imperatives of the rhetorical game itself. Yesterday's zinger about the old boys network-cum-McCain staff meeting hit the bull's-eye of pithy ridicule, and he's also refocusing our famously wandering minds on what elections are supposed to be about: "It’s not about me or Joe Biden. It’s not about John McCain or Sarah Palin. It’s not about lipstick, it’s not about pigs, it’s about you."

Yesterday, speaking in relation to Wall Street's apoplectic contractions, an investment strategist told the NYT "there’s a growing sense that there’s no end to this in sight." Needless to say, it's a long and assuredly bumpy road to November; but for now, largely because of that forecast it's beginning to look like it could apply to Obama's rising polling numbers as well.