Obama, the Newsweek Poll and Other Downers

80% of Americans believe this country is on the wrong track. Bush is the most unpopular, criminally incompetent President ever to hold the office. The economy is in shambles. The past 8 years have been a nightmare. A catastrophe! And here's John McCain promising more of the same. So tell me, how can polls be claiming that nearly half the electorate supports a McCain Presidency? How?? Are so many Americans that terminally stupid?? If that is the case, then this country is cooked. Or is it that the polls are being rigged? The MSM does love a horse race. And if the Republicans are planning to steal this election, wouldn't they first have to convince the masses that it was always a "close" race? And now there's talk of a coup by top Democrats to hijack the convention - robbing Obama of the nomination and giving it to Clinton - A move guaranteed to spell defeat for the Dems in November. It's all just so damn depressing....

PM puzzels how Obama could be suffering in the polls, despite his tracking to the far right - which PM views as an uncounterable political masterstroke. He needs to entertain the possibility that this salient characteristic of Obama's strategy is what is killing his approval ratings.

It started at the Texas primary. Despite three times the money for adds and the enthusiasm of his volunteer army he never closed on Hillary. This has been the fear of the the super delegates:only matched by their fear of voting their brain instead of the racist reaction to not supporting the black American of Kenya descent.Since Hillary got out the Bump for Obama has not materialized.He could not get the white vote against Hillary and he won't get it against McCain so he better get every black vote in the US if he is to win. The task now is to register and get out the Black American vote. No use appealing to Americans of Color since the Asian vote won't go his way neither will the Mexican vote without Hillary.

The answer to Obama's sudden dip in the Newsweek poll is easy: FISA. He blew a real opportunity to prove that he has true leadership qualities and is, indeed, an expert and defender of the Constitution. Instead he threw the Fourth Amendment under the bus for what he erroneously thought was a political advantage. His vote on the FISA bill is a lose/lose situation for him. He will still be attacked on his national security credentials, and when the truth comes out about what Bush and Company have been doing, he will be haunted by his extremely bad "judgment" in voting for this bill, the way Hillary was by her vote for the Iraq war authorization. He will never be able to take the high road on this issue again. He blew it.

You can't rig an election in this country unless the press band wagons for the Republican candidate in concert with polls showing a tight race. If going into the election the Republican candidate is within two or three polling points of the challenger in one or two key battleground states (Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania come to mind) a combination of voter suppression and fraud will make it game, set, match for the Republican. Just as intended.

truthisall.net 2008 Election Model A Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel.htm

Updated: July 9

This Election Model update includes 33 state polls just released by Zogby. They indicate that a landslide is in the making. Obama now has 54.7% of the two-party vote. Assuming he also wins 54.7% of the undecided vote, the 5000 election trial simulation produced an average of 390 (expected) electoral votes – which equates to a virtual 100% win probability. The other critical assumptions are that the election is fraud-free and held today.

The model’s base case (most-likely) scenario projects that Obama will win 420 EV with 55.6% of the two-party vote - assuming he captures 60% of the undecided vote. With 50% of the undecided vote (pessimistic scenario), he still has 363 EV and a 53.9% share.

A total of 14 states are projected to flip to Obama from 2004: AR, AZ, CO, IA* IN, MO, MT, NC*, NM*, NV, OH*, SC, TX, VA*

The asterisk indicates that Obama is projected to win over 54% of the 2-party vote.

But that’s not all. Obama is within striking distance of carrying these states:

AK, FL, GA, KY, LA, MS, ND, OK, TN

Election Model win probability calculations match for both the state electoral and national popular vote. The computations are based on a Monte Carlo simulation and normal distribution, respectively. Poll-based forecast models which give McCain more than a miniscule win probability (some exceed 20%) are mathematically incorrect. By inflating McCain’s win probability, they unintentionally provide potential cover for another stolen election.

Zogby was correct in 2004 when he projected that Kerry would win. Unfortunately, Bush won a rigged recorded vote. Kerry won the True Vote, but like Three-Card Monte, what you see is not what you get. Election forecasters and complicit media pundits who projected a Bush win avoid discussing the overwhelming evidence that the election was stolen. On the contrary, a complicit media relentlessly promotes the fictional propaganda that Bush won TWO elections.

Repeat a lie often enough and it becomes conventional wisdom. But that’s to be expected. Although the media commissioned the exit polls which indicated that Kerry won by 5%, they don’t question the mathematically impossible Final Exit Poll which was forced to match a corrupt vote count. Bush won the corrupt Recorded vote but lost the True vote. Past is Prologue. It would be foolish to assume a fraud-free election.

That’s why the Election Model now includes a fraud scenario analysis. Even assuming that 4% of total votes cast will be uncounted, McCain would need at least 10% of Obama’s votes switched to his column to win. In 2004 approximately 3% of all votes cast were uncounted. Bush stole 8.0% of Kerry’s votes (analysis below) to obtain his 3.0 million vote “mandate”.

This is a summary of where things stand today:

Electoral vote Obama 420 – McCain 118 (Monte Carlo simulation- average of 5000 election trials)

Polling averages Model Obama McCain

State 45.2 37.4 (weighted average)

National 48.4 44.0 (latest 5-polls)

Data source:

zogby.com, electoral-vote.com and realclearpolitics.com

Popular vote share projection (2-party)

55.6% State model (aggregate average)

52.7% National model (5-poll average)

Win probability

State

100% - electoral vote (Monte Carlo simulation)

100% - popular vote (2% MoE)

99.99% - popular vote (3% MoE)

National

99.6% - popular vote (2% MoE)

In a true democracy, this would be a slam dunk for Obama.McCain supports the most unpopular president in history with 25% approval.

But there’s a catch: It’s called Election Fraud. The Democratic True Vote is always greater than the Recorded Vote. A massive voter registration and GOTV effort is required to overcome the fraud.

Approximately 3-4 million of Obama’s votes will be uncounted.

2008 Election Fraud Scenario Analysis

The Election Model has been updated to include two key fraud variable factors: uncounted votes (net of votes padded) and switched votes. Historical evidence shows that over 75% of uncounted ballots are found in heavily Democratic minority precincts. These critical factors are never included in election forecasting models which permeate the media and the internet. In fact, there is no mention of fraud from professional pollsters, political forecasters in academia, media pundits or liberal bloggers on their web sites. But it’s understandable. No one wants to bite the hand that feeds them. Why should any of these interested parties discuss fraud when Democratic politicians won’t? Unlike impeachment, the dirty little secret of election fraud has always been off the table in Congress.

The base case projection assumes zero fraud. But if 4% of total votes cast are uncounted, McCain would need at least 10% of Obama’s votes switched to his column in order to win. This could be done by rigging strategically selected touch screens, optical scanners, punched cards, levers and central tabulators. Is it just a coincidence that Karl Rove is advising McCain?

In 2004, Bush won by an official 3.0m vote margin (62-59m). The official recorded vote was 122.3m. According to the 2004 Census, 125.7m votes were cast. Therefore, approximately 3.4m votes (2.74%) were uncounted. Historical evidence shows that the vast majority (75%) of uncounted ballots are found in heavily Democratic minority precincts. After the uncounted ballots are added to the official vote, the margin is reduced to 1.4m (62.9-61.5m).

The 2004 Election Calculator Model (see below) determined that Kerry won by 66.9-57.1 million. Therefore, simple arithmetic shows that approximately 5.4m votes (8.0%) must have been switched from Kerry to Bush. Note that in Florida, Ohio and several other states, total votes recorded exceeded votes cast (vote padding exceeded vote suppression). Most states had more vote suppression than vote padding; the net difference is the number of uncounted votes.

Sure, any or all of the allegations levelled at Obama above might well be valid, but there just might be yet another explanation. Anyone here check into the FBI investigation of John Conyers' wife for bribery? Whether or not she's guilty as charged, one can certainly understand the power the White House holds over him via the investigation. He plays ball, they go easy on her. He moves to impeach, ... All the Washington crowd have skeletons in their closets, and those with the power can sure rattle Dem' bones until even the staunchest supporter can hear the tune! It's no different with Obama, or with his new best friend Hillary, as it was with Dianne Feinstein and Chuck Schumer, or any Dem who is acting strangely Republican: they've been turned through blackmail.

you are so right---it should be renamed ---the McCain media. Only a media so aligned with a candidate could have almost completely bypassed the bloopers and missteps of McCain's week.

http://dhinmi.dailykos.com/ Newsweek Polls: A Tale of Two Countries by DHinMI Sat Jul 12, 2008 at 01:50:33 PM PDT In one country, which Newsweek polled in June, the electorate is split R26/D38/I36. In the other country, which Newsweek polled a few weeks later, that country's electorate is split R32/D32/I36. In one country, polled in June, 84% of the electorate is white. In the other country, polled a few weeks later, 88% of the electorate is white. In one country, polled in June, 19% of the registered voters are under 40, 39% are between 40 and 59, and 42% are 60 or older. In the other country, polled a few weeks later, only 17% of the registered voters are under 40, 38% are between 40 and 59, and 45% are 60 or older. In the younger, slightly more racially diverse and much more Democratic country, Barack Obama was supposedly leading by 15 points. In the country that is somewhat older, is somewhat whiter, and is evenly split between Republicans and Democrats, Barack Obama is supposedly leading McCain by only 3 points. According to Newsweek, comparing these results shows "what a difference a few weeks can make." A more valid conclusion is that it shows what a difference polling two very different countries can make. Why does this silliness happen? --------------- Way too many gullible chicken littles, rethug trolls, and Hill-Billy lovin losers on this board now days,

It is very possible there is a game going on where the polling will continue to have Obama go down and McCain come up. With the media playing their role as McCain supporters, there is no way to be sure these polls are not playing out just as republicans plan. It always seems that Democrats are the weakest people to get behind their candidate and stick like glue. I am a sticker and I've stuck with Gore, Kerry and now Obama. This is going to be a tough fight. It will be Obama against all the media basically and plenty of others. Republicans will stand with their moron for all the same phoney crap they always do. We need to do the same and support our next president, Senator Obama.

I frankly don't trust pre-election opinion polls when one major candidate is black. I learned that bitter lesson back in 1982 in California, when then-Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, the Democratic nominee, was ahead in pre-election polls in his bid to become California's first African-American governor. In the end, though, the GOP candidate, George Deukmejian, won. Fast-forward to 1990. Sen. Jesse Helms (R-North Carolina) -- who died on the Fourth of July at age 86 -- aired a blatantly racist campaign TV ad to scare white voters against his African-American opponent, Harvey Gantt -- and the scare tactic worked. Fast-forward again to 2006. Democrat Harold Ford, Jr. was touted to have a better-than-even chance of becoming Tennessee's first African-American U.S. Senator -- only to become the target of a racist campaign TV ad as well, costing him the election to Republican Bob Corker. It's time to face an unpleasant reality: White respondents to pre-election candidate preference polls -- especially those over 55 years of age -- cannot be trusted to tell the truth about their true feelings about the proposition of having an African-American serving as their U.S. Senator or Governor, let alone President. The sad truth is, there remains a stubborn 30 percent of white voters who will never accept a black man as their president -- but they haven't got the balls to admit it openly, lest they be branded racists.

Meh, the sampling was dodgy.

However, Obama likely is flatlining, on account of his display of lily-livered cowardice in the face not only of the Republicans but of Steny Hoyer. Obama is supposed to be the de facto leader of the Democratic Party, yet he can't even stop the Congressional leadership from ratifying lawlessness? And instead he votes for lawlessness and lies to his followers that he is voting for protections against lawlessness. Worse, he also promises that he will be "good" and not abuse the lawlessness, which is the promise of a scoundrel. Obama could have been using my money to light cigars but I don't reward cowardice and unscrupulousness.

A willingness to goosestep to look "tough" not only is disgusting, it also is counterproductive, because it indicates submissiveness to an authority. In trying to look "tough", Obama makes himself look weak.

They just don't bear any resemblance to the McCain in our universe. But do people care anymore? It's American TV. It _has_ to be true. Or does truth matter anymore? It just sort of sinks into the brain and gets assimilated with no intervening judgement at all. And that _is_ truth. So good TV ads == good McCain. Peace, Prosperity, Blah-de-Blah -- you betcha.

It seems like it may not be too late for the Democrats to nominate Clinton for president. Neither candidate has enough delegates to win on the first ballot. And the super delegates don't actually cast their ballots until there is a dealock at the convention in Denver. Several hundred superdelegates have pledged to vote for Obama (hence making him the "presumtive" nominee), but they -- as well as any or all of the other "pledged" delegates are free to change their vote up until the very moment it is cast.

I'm in California. I remember all too well that every poll showed Tom Bradley up by 10-12 points to beat George Deukmejian for Governor. When the votes were Counted, Deukmejian won by 10. Bradley moved to the center just as Obama has. But once the voters went in the booth, they voted their prejudice. The way things are going, I expect to see John Mc Cain in the White House on Jan 20th.

P.M, your contention that elections are won from the center is true only during status quo elections. Did FDR run from the center? No, lead a progressive revolution out of the great depression. Did Reagan run from the center? No, he lead a conservative revolution away from the "Carter Malaise." Voters are once again seeking a politician to be inspired by after 8 years of Bush lawlessness and failed conservatism--yes, another progressive revolution--and Obama has gone from being that transformative figure during the nominating process to one who can't inspire a warm bucket of spit. Yes, he is likely to win anyway, but his chance to lead a real movement has been frittered away by listening to the likes of middling DC consultants and analysts like yourself who wouldn't be able to see a real social movement until it bit them on the ass. Jesus, PM, your posts are really growing tiresome. BTW, the latest Newsweek sample was older and whiter and more Republican--sort of explains the discrepency between the two polls now doesn't it?

Obama supporters keep saying Obama would do better than McCain in debates. Who is having the townhall meetings and who is running away from them? Hint - it is not McCain running away. I am not a supporter of McCain but at least he has the guts to face the people and answer their questions. We all know Obama won't because he changes his positions depending on who he is talking to or he takes both sides of an issue at the same time. Republicans and Democrats may not agree on the issues but McCain is not out to destroy the Country. He would have a democratic congress to work with. Of course you could be afraid that the democratic congress would keep caving in to the republican minority. That would be hard to justify but like Obama and his FISA vote, democrats would do it.

http://informationlandmine.blogspot.com/

Obama let the air out of his own balloon by talking and acting like an ordinary politician. He has transformed himself into John Kerry--overly cautious, reciting slogans, espousing conventional wisdom etc. This is exactly the opposite of how he got so many people from all points of the political spectrum (excluding hardcore right-wingers) excited in his candidacy. The real question now is whether he can get people excited again. It will not be easy. Trust is a difficult thing to regain once it has been lost.

Duh!!! The two posters before me nailed it... B.O.'s race to the right, there is no center in America anymore. Caving on immunity to the telecoms, promise to continue Bush's faith-base initiative, stuttering about Iraq, Barack is showing he is just another Democrat with the ability to snatch DEFEAT from the jaws of victory. Here is a clue to any Patriot who wishes to run for a political office.... Stand with the Constitution, fair and impartial justice for ALL, and what is right for America is right for all Americans and stop pandering to pockets of society!!!!!! Impeach Now or simply hang'em for Treason!

Take heart, good buddy, and take a look at the sampling data: http://dhinmi.dailykos.com/ Peace, Rico

... perhaps it's because Obama, in his race to the "mythical center" has stopped being the candidate who would "change politics as usual".

Voting for the FISA abomination and talking about the expansion of faith-based initiatives started under George Bush is making progessives like me run for the hills.

He didn't need to start pandering so much, but did anyway, and in the end he drove his own base away. His advisors aren't looking so smart these days.

Whew. BF sure knows how to spin them with the best, eh? "...a bellyflopping swan dive from a 15 point to merely three point lead over John McCain in only three weeks -- was actually quite impossible to explain, although speculation abounds." Read your own comments section BF. Isn't it obvious why Obama numbers have been doing "a bellyflopping swan dive"? It isn't "speculation". Why not face it? From the time Obama has self-declared himself to be the apparent nominee and the U.S. Flag pin became a staple of his lapel his support has dwindled. Why is that? Because now Obama can take those that brung him over the top for granted. He no longer needs you progressives, liberals, etc. But he does need the Hillary crowd. He does need the independent voter. He does need the digruntled moderate Republican. So he becomes a pander bear, you know, he looks fuzzy and warm but will snap his jaw and eat you as necessary. People are seeing this more and more clearly. In a few weeks time, perhaps, a month or so, Obama will come out and support the newly declared bombing and war on Iran. You watch. The current powers that are in control will use their Iran imbroglio to maneuver Obama to the right. Obama will have no trouble doing that publicly as he is ideologically already there. Obama is, after all, one of them. Run Ralph. Run!

GOPHater, How can Obama be seen as being tough on terrorism when he is afraid of John McCain. Obama told McCain he would debate him anywhere, anytime. When McCain took him up on his offer Obama changed his tune (another flipflop) and ran. These are town meetings that would have supporters of both candidates and independents. What is Obama afraid of? Could it be that if he bombs he won't be able to blame it on Hillary this time? He might have to take responsibility for himself and his actions. Something he hasn't done yet. He always plays the victim and blames someone else. Just like Bush! Even during the primary Obama supporters were blaming Hillary for Obama losing the GE. Obama cannot be seen as strong as long as he keeps changing his positions. He lies about everything - just like Bush. He panders for votes and his supporters make excuses for him. The same supportes who degraded and insulted Hillary for doing the same thing. Obama, like the democratic congress, never stands up and fights for anything. I am a democrat but have come to the conclusion that republicans, right or wrong, would at least fight for the USA, while the democrats cower and roll over. McCain is not great but he is not as bad as the democrats paint him. Obama is closer to Bush than McCain.

Obama has Got to take away the terrorism issue from McSame. He leads him everywhere else, so concentrate on the one issue where he is behind. There is no reason for it, so it shouldn't be that hard to dispel the notion that McSame would do a better job of protecting us from terrorism. Anyone with half a mind knows Obama would be better on this front, but Obama has to work on letting us know that. Also, dispel this "hero" notion that McSame enjoys. This can easily be accomplished by getting the USS Forrestal accident out there. Also, McSame's preferential treatment during captivity. Also, the fact that McSame sang to the Vietcong while in captivity.