Given John McCain's ballistic temper, I pity the poor aide who drew the short straw and had to show him the latest in bad news.
By now, after everything the good senator has done to pamper his base and pander to independents -- and after having had a free ride for months to solidify his numbers among both -- he must be wondering what it takes.
The latest in depressing news for McCain, of course, was yesterday's Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll, which read very much like the latest Newsweek poll, which itself was ridiculed and dismissed by many among the punditry as an aberrant quantification.
But I doubt they're ridiculing this morning, or that McCain's hopes of a mere aberration are still intact. To quote the source:
In a two-man race between the major-party candidates, registered voters chose Obama over McCain by 49% to 37% in the national poll, conducted Thursday through Monday.
On a four-man ballot that included independent candidate Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr, voters chose Obama over McCain by 48% to 33%.
Which was precisely what Newsweek's poll said in either case, given the margin of error.
Even worse for McCain is that the political reputations to which he's tethered just keep on sinking, and with no salvation in sight: George Bush's approval rating has hit yet a new all-time low of 23 percent, according to the LA Times/Bloomberg poll; and only 29 percent of voters admitted to having a "positive feeling" about the Republican Party.
The second set of numbers is especially grim for McCain in the long run -- which is to say, through October -- yet wouldn't be quite as grim if Barack Obama weren't exploiting the situation so artfully.
For Democrats, winnable contests are the ones in which they race to the center -- and that, of course, is exactly what Obama is doing, plus some. The Dems can tack to the left when all seems hopeless, but this is hardly one of those occasions.
When far or at least comfortably ahead, it is always asked of the Democratic presidential candidate: How can you screw this up?
The answer? Appeal to the base, long after the primaries are put away.
In fact, that's probably the only way Obama can now screw this up. But he's admirably refusing to buckle, and the base had best brace itself for more middle-to-right positioning to come.
Because in that positioning there's victory, and Republican strategists know it and fear it as well as Obama knows it and loves it.
Said, for instance, GOP media consultant Alex Castellanos to the Washington Post: "[Obama] is not trying to cobble together the old Democratic coalition of interest groups and get 48 percent like John Kerry. This is not three yards and a cloud of dust. This is an aggressive leap across the 50-yard line to play on Republican turf."
Obama's advisers believe that independents will break decisively their way by fall, which likely would be decisive itself. "In the end," however, they also "believe that whichever candidate wins the highest percentage of voters in the other party is likely to be the next occupant of the White House."
And they're taking no chances. Obama is going right -- literally -- at the heart of the opposition, which may peeve the leftward base to no end, but is exceedingly smart.
One Obama confidant put it well: "People and commentators have been saying we know Barack is hopeful and that he appeals to a broad cross section of the public. But perhaps people didn't know how tough he is. He's been saying all along, don't confuse hope with naivete."
I might add that the base should not confuse strategy with idealistic intent.
Buzz this on Buzzflash.net
Crystal Balls
John Dean says
Ask John Dean this.
Will the real Barack Obama please stand up?
Principles
If I could design the ideal Presidential Candidate
...he would look and act like Barack with the following improvements: a more comfortable debater, funnier – quicker witted, a decorated Marine officer with three purple hearts, stints as a very popular governor of Ohio and Florida, a retired business guru who managed millions, made billions and gave it all away to the poor --- and didn’t back down in his defense of the constitution or bow down to AIPAC; Oh yes, and he would be a she (Michelle?).
But we got what we got. Politics isn’t ala carte – it’s like a school cafeteria, or better yet a hospital menu – two choices meat or moldy fish. If we progressives succumb to our disillusionment and stand on the sidelines this year, we better get used to the idea of Dr. John Strangelove taking the oath of office next January….a thought that makes my spine shiver. To those progressives whose spines don’t shiver at that thought, well then you better get your spinal column checked.
As Churchill Said...
...about the victory at the Battle of El Alamein: "Before Alamein we never won a battle, after Alamein we never lost one"...May that also be true about the 21st Century's return to a "rational" approach to politics and more importantly governance - which Barack represents.
It’s interesting to read the off the rails bloggers to your site. I’m glad to see their vigor and Lord knows they are correct in their assessment of the complete failure and criminality of the Shrub years. They represent the purist’s streak in America, which is our salvation and our doom. They share that puritan gene with their counterparts on the far right – since their absolutist approach leaves little quarter to the other side – almost counter-democratic in nature. Obama has clearly stated that his intention for governance is to unite. If he wins, we actually need to bring down the level of acrimony and get to work on the big problems, which of course will rile the feathers of all extremist.
But don’t worry angry bloggers, Barack is a first step back…give him a chance…the big issues we all desire to see rectified (return to adherence to the constitution, reducing the Military/Industrial complex, universal health care, alternative energy, Iraq, infrastructure repair, addressing poverty, a non-interventionist foreign policy – and improving our educational system) will take more than one generation to attain…any faster would require massive displacements and worse. Lets take one step at a time and ‘get er done’.
I concur with your approach P.M….broadcast the truth about how to actually win in November to the left of left center readers so they get used to the idea. We should all enjoy the results, at least for a week or two after he’s elected!
Puritans?
I don't think any progressive would have a problem with Obama compromising on an energy bill or a farm bill or something of that sort. But we shouldn't be compromising on a FISA bill - especially since there is nothing to gain, but much to lose with that compromise.
Will, you maintain that this will take decades. Well, perhaps we only get 8 years like we had with Clinton? Then we've dropped essential rights just to grab ahold of the reins - for what purpose?
$6 Gallon gas and an economy in tatters is what Joe Sixpack will understand come the election. Do you really think Mr. and Mrs. Middle America will be debating Obama's stance on FISA when they cast their ballot? This was a capitulation of the highest order when it wasn't required.
Ageed
The FISA capitulation sucks. I wish politics wasn't so banal and comprimising, as I am truely upset by the whole thing. But my determination that the GOP does not retake the White House percludes me from jumping ship this early in the game - for Crying out Loud do you understand who takes the reins if Barack doesn't??? Do you really understand what we are up against? It's much more than an angrier, PTSD-ridden version of Bush 43. It's the further stacking of the Supreme Court with conservatives, its a vindication and further ascedancy of the mad absolutist crazy domionist christians that hate rationale secular humanism, the list is too long....must I go on??? Its in that light that we must proceed.
If you think that 8 years of a return to the Clinton era equates 4+ years of BUSH 44, in any substantive way - then you are beyond the pale, my friend!! And I don't think its 8 more years, I think you better strap on your safety belt for another 24 years....these changes are really monumental and they are worth it. The great society our better angels in politics and government envisioned years ago before the GOP took power in 1946, and then again in 1980 is worth it!
Wow
You think that by upholding the Fourth Amendment and voting against the FISA bill w/Telecom Immunity that Obama would essentially be "appealing to his base". Am I reading this correctly? Because I couldn't believe my eyes when I was reading it, but apparently that's your paper thin argument.
My thoughts would be that by voting down the FISA bill, he was standing up for the rights of all Americans. Let's not forget - today's Democratic party is Republican-ish, it's definitely dominated by centrists, not true progressives.
By your argument, as I posted the other day, Hillary's vote for the Iraq war could be termed, in your own words, as "admirably refusing to buckle...middle-to-right positioning...Because in that positioning there's victory, and Republican strategists know it and fear it as well as [Hillary] knows it and loves it."
Yet you lambasted Hillary for her Iraq war vote, as did I, but you've let your love for a candidate cloud your judgement when he is doing the same cynical, despicable thing Hillary did. I've been a huge Obama supporter, but I'm not going to kiss his ass when he favors legislation, to the detriment of us all, just to position himself as a centrist and win an election.
If you're going to blast Hillary for her Iraq War Vote and claim journalistic impartiality, then you should be blasting Obama for FISA as well.
Sorry PM. Your line in the
Sympathy for the Demo...
The way Bush and the GOP and DNC-lead Congress have mangled our bill of rights sickens me and has done so for years. I cannot imagine how they do it. But I expect Barack has made a calculated decision regarding the recent capitulation on the 4th Amendment. Its sad, but its politics in this most heated of political years.
I understand Barack liked to play close quarters basketball and his team mates say he employed a journeyman’s approach with occasional big break away shots - see a connection to his political life? I expect his recently voiced approval of the FISA bill reflects that approach. He is trying to tie down all the approaches in a defensive move to off set his opponent. I guess it has something to do with anticipating how McMad will play to the center ‘undecideds’ who decide the election this year, sadly. In this scheme, he doesn’t want McMad to say he’s weak on terrorism – sound familiar? I also expect that Barack understands the handicap he has with this demographic, being a black man in a credulous and racist society. Remember some 20% of DEMOCRATIC voters in certain states think he’s a Muslim!! So he has chosen a safe path to victory - diffuse the offense of your opponent by taking away his ball.
While this is a shrewd strategy, it's a sad day for our party and country. I hope Barack doesn't fall short of the mark for political expediency again before November...this was a biggy and taxes the feelings of his ardent supporters.
But if you choose to 1) vote for McMad, 2) not vote or 3) vote for a third party, you help to ensure that those who are too young to vote will never get the chance to vote between the lesser of two evils…This election is too important for us to fail!
Finally
Intelligent Americans will
by taking positions that are
Obama's "strategic move" to Center all well & good, BUT....
Lewis "Scooter" Libby, only the VP's Chief of Staff (and concurrently a senior advisor to the president) - was _convicted_, by a sympathetic jury, of Obstruction of Justice _and_ Perjury.... so of course Nancy Pelosi rolls out the red-carpet for George Bush to PARDON Libby (actually, commutation of sentence, the pardon will be coming this Christmas), "Go ahead George, Pardon the nice man, all he did was obstruct justice past the 2004 election, so you could keep that awful 'CIA outing' scandal on ice and 'win' that election, so our dear man, John Kerry, didn't have to take the eternal blame for your war."
Everyone in that jury, everyone in that courtroom, everyone (with an IQ greater than a flea) in Washington knew that Mr. Libby, in lying to FBI investigators and obstructing justice, was doing the bidding of his White House superiors (with Libby being COS to the VP, those names could be counted on the fingers of one hand) - but Speaker Pelosi pretended not to notice, the millions of dollars in that costly FBI investigation and IC prosecution (much less the cost of the "outed" CIA organization) be damned.
Then there is Harriet Miers, Joshua Bolton, and Karl Rove all traipsing around Washington - pertly _ignoring_ & scorning Congressional Subpoenas!
Can anyone IMAGINE Mafia godfathers, Vietnam war generals, tobacco company executives, Nixon administration "Watergate" officials, and (heaven forbid) CLINTON White House officials, IGNORING Congressional subpoenas?!
The above two examples are just the tip of the Pelosi-Reid-Hoyer "complicit in White House Obstruction of Justice" iceberg, from
#1. running kangaroo courts for female volunteer privates accused, tried, convicted and imprisoned (only) of "abuse" - while, mind you, the White House asserts its "right" - to TORTURE prisoners TO DEATH if need be, at their sole discretion, and with no accountability to anyone, anywhere!
#2. to the 9-11 Commission whitewash, even though we know that the Bush White House received such urgent warnings from CIA Director George Tenet (on July 10, 2001), that Attorney General Ashcroft stopped flying public airliners less than two weeks later;
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2001/07/26/national/main303601.shtml
#3. to Mr. Bush's connections with JACK ABRAMOFF, Abramoff only CONVICTED of BRIBING CONGRESS - and speaker Pelosi mirrors the WP/NYT/DC "conventional wisdom" that we have NO CURIOUSITY as to what Abramoff and Mr. Bush's senior aides were talking about?
#4. to Mr. Bush's close relations with CONVICTED fraudster KEN LAY of ENRON co...
#5. to Vice President Cheney STILL getting financial compensation from his "former" company, Halliburton - whose stock price goes up with every billion-dollar no bid, no oversight contract the Vice President hands out..
#6. to vast corruption in Katrina reconstruction (how did Democrats confirm Michael Brown as head of FEMA in the first place -when he had NO disaster experience?!)
#7. to TORTURE (with videos being watched live from the WH dungeon, er, basement war room)
#8. to trillions of dollars of Bush2 deficits leading to the Bush2 Recession http://www.uuforum.org/deficit.htm
#9. to the one TRILLION taxpayer dollars "injected" into Wall St. "big boys" - bankers, brokerage houses, mutual funds - by the fed and Treasury, to keep Wall St. from drowning in their own sea of greed, hype, inflated profit estimates, and outright corruption -
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/7483/Fed-Heads-Back-to-the-Well-Will-It-Run-Dry?tickers=BSC,
#10. to of course the grand-daddy outrage of them all, Speaker Pelosi BRINGING TO THE FLOOR the TELECOM SURVEILLANCE SPYING bill, when she had ZERO necessity of doing so!
Each of the above could of course be reformulated as "10 basic questions the DC press corps is too cowardly & corrupt to ask of President Bush or VP Cheney", but let's assume for the moment that the DC press corpse indeed has ZERO civic obligation or journalistic responsibility (and that their sole lord and master is their paychecks, like a medieval courtier genuflecting to his lord)- where does that leave the Democratic "leadership"?
Since when does being "a leader" mean _FOLLOWING_ the dictates of the DC press minions, who are following the orders of their corporate robber baron masters?
The bottom line is, on these 10 issues, and at least a dozen more (did we even mention "Purgegate", the purging of US Attorneys and other DoJ officials who would not use the Justice Department to harass Democratic voters and activists?) - NANCY PELOSI is now FULLY COMPLICIT with Bush-Cheney White House OBSTRUCTION OF JUSTICE.
Somewhere along the line, the Democrat "leadership" forgot to notice - Republicans 'won' the White House, House, Senate, dominant control of federal agencies and federal judiciary, the Supreme Court, most state houses and governor's mansions, and control of the press/media "4th Estate" - by RELENTLESS ATTACKS and ACCUSATIONS against Democratic candidates and leaders.
It is only because blatant Republican CORRUPTION and INCOMPETENCE have dragged the American economy and military down, that Democrats are enjoying majorities in the House & Senate, and eying the White House. But while Repubicans can MAKE UP SCANDALS to keep their propaganda attack machine going - "Travel office 'scandal'", "Lincoln Bedroom 'scandal'", "White House Trasing 'scandal'" - cowering Democrat "leaders" can't even make a scandal connecting the White House to the CONVICTIONS of Jack Abramoff, Ken Lay, or Scooter Libby!
Great job of providing an example of women achieving high office there, Nance.
Since you became Speaker, Congressional Subpoenas get as much respect as discarded newspapers awaiting the trash can.
Just Maybe
As I said a little late a few days ago:
The Left is sounding more and more nihilistic, if BZ and CommonDreams posters are any indication.
Maybe, just maybe, Obama knows how to win. About time a Democrat figured that out.
Maybe, just maybe, he also knows how to lead... which would have nothing to do with what he did in order to win.
This could very well be the Democrats last chance to make any kind of difference.
So there are two choices: 1) stay home, vote for McCain or a third party candidate or 2) vote for Obama.
The former indicates a desire for the whole thing to fall apart, with all its attendant misery.
The latter indicates some hope that maybe, just maybe, we can either turn this around or at least slow down and cushion the fall.
Hell, chaos is always an option. Why not wait one more election cycle? If Obama can't, or doesn't make a difference, we'll all have a front row seat for the inevitable Grand Opera, replete with Death and a Fat Lady.