New Poll Reveals 56% of Republicans Support a Form of Public Option: Clearly, Congressional Republicans Are in Denial

BUZZFLASH NEWS ANALYSIS
by Meg White

If anything demonstrates the mainstream media's capability to ignore pertinent information and instead regurgitate conventional political wisdom, it's the reporting on opinion polls.

A Washington Post/ABC News poll released yesterday was widely reported as evidence that support for the public option has returned. Though it's only 5 percent higher than it was at what the Post calls its "summertime lows" of 52 percent this summer, the Post declared that support has "rebounded." Ah, what a difference a few percentage points make.

But what I found truly amazing was that a certain type of public option had the support of more than three-fourths of respondents. Even more shocking was that 56 percent of Republicans support this type of public option. More than half of self-identified Republicans, of the party that brought deathers and tenthers to this debate, support the public option? How could this be? The Washington Post explains:

If a public plan were run by the states and available only to those who lack affordable private options, support for it jumps to 76 percent. Under those circumstances, even a majority of Republicans, 56 percent, would be in favor of it, about double their level of support without such a limitation.

OK, so it's not the public option progressives have been hoping for, or even the one they've been willing to compromise for. As far as I can tell (because the poll itself merely asked about support for a plan run by states available strictly to those who lack affordable private options, not a specific proposal), they're not talking about the opt-out plan lauded by progressive lions such as Paul Krugman, Howard Dean and Nate Silver as a good compromise.

That plan would be a federal program that states could choose to opt out of, rather than the federal government handing over money for state-based programs.

By all indications, the Washington Post seems to be asking about something closer to what The Hill called the "quasi-public option" added into the Finance Committee's version of the bill at the beginning of the month. Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA) offered the amendment which basically provided funding allowing for states to create their own public options.

That proposal would not have the same bolstering "social experiment" cachet of clearly testing the public option and demonstrating it can work by allowing it to function in the free market. That way, some conservative states could observe the effects the public option has on their neighbors before opting in themselves. Cantwell's proposal also might not be the best in terms of cost savings, but at this early (pre-Congressional Budget Office score) stage, it's hard to say that for certain.

But, as I noted above, I can't even say for sure what they were referring to in the poll. Moreover, one could assume that poll respondents weren't aware of the nuance either.

Respondents to political polls often react to particular words and phrases within questions, rather than policy ideas. So one would assume that a poll question that contained the phrase "government-sponsored plan" would have a turn-off rate of nearly 100 percent for Republicans, if the votes and views of their congressional representatives are any indication.

The point is, they're not. While Republican lawmakers are voting against Democratic healthcare reform as a bloc, that's not how their constituents see things. Putting the state-run public option aside for a minute, it's important to note that 26 percent of Republicans polled approve of a government-run, public option healthcare program (and 60 percent of that group say they "strongly approve").

It just goes to show that even though the authoritarian GOP allows no room for dissent, real live Republicans don't universally agree with the talking points. I know; obviously, right? Well, with how this debate has been portrayed as one belonging to Washington and the screaming town-hallers, I thought it'd be prudent to remind progressives that there are some free-thinking conservatives out there.

Really it should be no surprise that Republicans, at least those thinking about policy and not merely defeating the president, favor a state-run plan. Even though the national GOP itself has largely abandoned their "states' rights" stance on everything from marriage, to drug and gun laws, conservative voters still seem to have respect for that precept.

The Post's own analysis suggests that the opposition to the public option comes from partisan fears over centralized government control. But by putting it in state hands, opinions change radically. Perhaps the state opt-out compromise that has such earned such high praise from progressives would also have enough of the states' rights element to please that 56 percent of Republicans who are amenable to a public option with an anti-federalist element.

If we could get a public option that well over half of the country's self-identified Republicans (a rare breed these days at only about 20 percent of the population for the past few months, the lowest single number in Post-ABC polls since 1983) then how could any Blue Dog complain that it would hurt their chances of reelection? As I recall, 56 percent is still a majority.

Of course, it's not that simple. But maybe it should be.

A video report from the Wall Street Journal yesterday indicated that Sen. Max Baucus (D-MT) is now open to creating a public option in the product that emerges from negotiations between his Finance Committee's healthcare reform bill and the one that came out of the Senate Health Committee.

The reporter details two reasons for the change of heart, and both of them are products of conservative heavy-handedness backfiring. First is the fact that turning to private co-ops in order to get bipartisan support did not bring any significant Republican backing. Second, the insurance industry's recent recalcitrance indicates that they will raise consumers' rates no matter what, so some see competition from the public option as the only way to keep them from doing so.

After months of seeming to ignore everything the public was saying they wanted from their representatives, perhaps these two recent disappointments mark a change in the congressional tide. Other recent polls have documented what's been called the "enthusiasm gap," which shows support for reform without a public option to be dismally low. If the health insurance industry and Republican lawmakers are simply implacable, perhaps Baucus et al. will have to stop trying to please them and turn to those who can be at least marginally satisfied. 

If the stubbornly "bipartisan" Baucus is willing to see the error of his ways and stop pandering to Republican lawmakers and lobbyists who will do anything to obstruct reform, maybe that 20 percent of people who still call themselves "Republicans" will get the hint as well.

BUZZFLASH NEWS ANALYSIS

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