If McCain is Elected President are We Also Electing Palin to the Position, Since Given His Age and Cancer He Might Not Survive?

A BUZZFLASH NEWS ANALYSIS
by Amy Weiss

Since John McCain selected Sarah Palin as his running mate, the media and the Obama campaign (wisely or unwisely) have focused a great deal on her. There are a few reasons why: she injected a lot of energy into the Republican campaign, she's new and fascinating, and she has a better shot at inheriting the presidency in the next four years than any other vice presidential candidate has in quite some time.

McCain has acknowledged the "enhanced importance" of his vice presidential pick due to his age. He also said, "We all know that the highest priority is someone who can take your place." Either John McCain no longer believes that is the highest priority or he actually believes Sarah Palin can jump right in. Both are cynical and scary prospects.

Talking life expectancy and the probability of a man dying in the near future is morbid and uncomfortable. Nobody, Democrat or Republican, wants John McCain to die. But as Paul Begala noted immediately after the Palin selection, this called McCain's age and health into question, when it had largely been left alone before:

Palin, a first-term governor of a state with more reindeer than people, will have to put on a few pounds just to be a lightweight. Her personal story is impressive: former fisherman, mother of five. But that hardly qualifies her to be a heartbeat away from the presidency.

For a man who is 72 years old and has had four bouts with cancer to have chosen someone so completely unqualified to become president is shockingly irresponsible. Suddenly, McCain's age and health become central issues in the campaign, as does his judgment.

After some back and forth with the media last spring, McCain partially released his medical records, which seem to show he is in relatively good health for a man of his age. 

McCain may think Social Security is an "absolute disgrace," but the Social Security Administration's actuarial tables seem to be pretty well-respected as far as life expectancy statistics go. According to the 2004 table, a man exactly 72 years old has about a 3.3% of dying in the next year.  That is without taking into account McCain's cancer history.

The Politico reported:

According to these statistics, there is a roughly 1 in 3 chance that a 72-year-old man will not reach the age of 80, which is how old McCain would be at the end of a second presidential term. And that doesn't factor in individual medical history, such as McCain's battles with potentially lethal skin cancer.

...for a man who has lived 72 years and 67 days (McCain's age on Election Day this year), there is between a 14.2 and 15.1 percent chance of dying before Inauguration Day 2013, according to the Social Security Administration's 2004 actuarial tables and the authoritative 2001 mortality statistics assembled by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners.

The Politico went on to explain that these kind of figures better predict life expectancies for groups (say 100,000 72-year-olds) rather than individuals so it's hard to tell how well these tables will apply to John McCain. There are of course many compounding factors: his bouts with cancer, his father's relatively young death at 70, his 96-year-old mother's apparent vitality.

The type of skin cancer McCain has had was melanoma, "the most serious type of skin cancer." He has had four melanomas removed. Three of them were "Stage 0" melanoma, considered "of little long-term concern." They were removed in 1993, 2000 and 2002. The fourth is suspected to be a Stage IIA melanoma, an invasive one that went beyond the first layer of skin. It was removed from McCain's left temple area in 2000.  The American Cancer Society says a Stage IIA melanoma "is associated with a five-year survival rate of about 78 percent and a 10-year survival rate of about 66 percent."

None of these numbers are incredibly alarming, but they're not exactly comforting either. A 15% chance of death before 2013 isn’t probable, but it’s significant.

There's also that issue that might actually be more sensitive to approach because it's less quantitative: competency. Assuming McCain follows the "average" model and lives another 12 years or more, isn't it generally accepted that people tend to lose a bit of cognitive function when they start getting up there? McCain himself has referenced "senior moments" and between claiming there was an Iraq-Pakistan border and calling Czechoslovakia a country three times in one week, he's had plenty.

With allegations of racism and sexism playing roles in this campaign, the McCain people and seniors around the country have warned against ageism. The author of thingsyoungerthanmccain.com has said he's been bombarded with accusations of ageism. Certainly we shouldn't immediately dismiss a person's capabilities because of his or her age, but it is impossible to argue that age -- unlike race or gender -- plays no role in a person's performance.

In John Kerry's speech at the DNC in Denver, he took a clever jab at McCain's age and linked it to judgment:

So remember, when we choose a commander-in-chief this November, we are electing judgment and character, not years in the Senate or years on this Earth. Time and again, Barack Obama has seen farther, thought harder, and listened better. And time and again, Barack Obama has been proven right.

In an ad released today, the Obama camp portrays McCain as out-of-touch and a longtime Washington insider. Those ideas are more important than his age, but age undoubtedly contributes to being out-of-touch, especially with technology.

To rebut challenges to Palin's experience, Republican pundits have sung in chorus "She's running for vice president, not president," before turning to attack Obama. But McCain's age is an issue, and like or not, Palin could become president sooner rather than later. Given the possible odds that McCain might not survive his first term, the GOP better start defending how saddling us with a proudly world affairs ignorant President Palin would be putting "Country First," given the "enhanced importance" of the situation.

A BUZZFLASH NEWS ANALYSIS

BuzzFlash Note: We are not statisticians and while this is our best analysis of survivability statistics, other figures could suggest different life expectancy and survivability odds. 

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