Weekly Reader Poll Has Predicted 12 of Last 13 Elections and This Year Obama Wins in Electoral Landslide

I'm an X pat living in Scotland and STILL find it hard that mcain has ANY votes. MY GOD, I don't know ONE Scot who isn't in total disbelief about Cane and his twinkie. Saw a T shirt the other day that said, I AM NOT A YANK. America you are losing a history's worth of respect. BUT i still hope, but hope can be so. . .

It's funny there is no mention of Acorn, the Obama fraud machine here on Buzzflash. Oh I forgot, Buzzflash works hand in hand with Acorn. Both are out the Chicago dirt machine!
I just voted. I'm a Life long Democrat that just voted a straight Republican ticket. My Democratic party is no longer a respectable party.

Why? Being a Democrat I've been on & part of all the Democratic Blogs, Huffington, KOS, here & others. I have never seen more vicious, disrespecting, low class comments ever coming out of the mouths of so called Democrats. The far left radical portion of the party has hijacked my party.

Being part of Buzzflash since it started, What a disappointment to see it change into a slimy radical rag publication. You guys went way overboard & took it personal.
Intelligent people have the right to disagree. But not to slander with lies, rumors & disrespectful comments.

This year should have been a cakewalk into the White House for us, but acording to todays Gallup poll it's up for grabs. I still think Obama will win, but if he doesn't, Look in the Mirror!!!

ELECTION UPDATE:

Gallup's most recent poll of voters came in again within the margin of error.

At 49% to 47%, the race is still "too close to call", as Gallup has a 2% margin of error.
Added to these polls from the last week, the election is up for grabs:

truthisall.net 2008 Election Model

A Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation

Updated: Oct. 28

TruthIsAll

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel.htm

The Election Model (EM) assumes as a base case that a fraud-free election is held today – and that current polls reflect the true vote. The state model projects Obama will win the True Vote by 76-62m. For McCain to win, he needs approximately 10% of Obama’s votes switched to his column (see the table below).

Obama exceeded 350 EV in 4862 election trials, so there is a 97.2% probability that he will win at least 350 EV. He has a 58% probability of exceeding 380 EV (he won 2902 trials with more than 380 EV).

The BAD news: The Gallup LV poll has Obama’s lead down to 2 points, 49-47%; the RV poll has him ahead by 50-43%. The AP poll (43-42) generated lots of angst and had very implausible internals.

The GOOD news: the Pew RV poll has Obama up by a whopping 16 points: 52-36% - and that’s BEFORE undecided voters are allocated. It could be a MAJOR True Vote landslide if these numbers fairly reflect the electorate – and Pew is a VERY respected polling firm. And on that AP poll, this was never considered: the two-party share was just 85%. If we allocate 2/3 of the “other” 15% to Obama, it becomes a more palatable 53-47%.

The undecided vote allocation is based the assumption that Obama is the challenger and McCain is running for Bush’s third term (GWB is not the most popular of incumbents). In fact, the Election Model (EM) base case allocates a conservative 60% of the undecided vote to Obama; most pollsters would typically assign 70-90%, depending on the incumbent’s approval rating.

The most critical states weighted by the electoral vote and poll spread (see below) are now FL, IN, NC, OH, MO, AZ and GA. The latest polls indicate that these states are a virtual lock: PA, MI, WI, MN, IA. With one week to go, the latest polls indicate that Obama is even within striking distance of winning these red states: Arizona (10 EV), Georgia (15), Montana (3) and North Dakota (3).

National polls are current; state polls lag the nationals by a week on average. But over the past few days, Obama’s projected state aggregate 2-party vote (55.2%) has exceeded the national average (53.5%). At the same time, Obama’s expected EV keeps rising. View the Electoral vote and projected vote share trend. Battleground state polls are now more frequent then they were a month ago, therefore the state poll aggregate should more closely match the national. View the State vs. National vote share projection trend.

The EM calculates an average of the two or three most recent state polls. It projects five vote share scenarios (5000 election trials each) over a range of undecided voter allocations (UVA) from 40-90%. Obama won the base case scenario (60%) with an average 379.3 EV. The median and mode were both 381. Even in the worst-case scenario (40%) he won all 5000 trials.

The Monte Carlo mean EV (379.31) matches the theoretical summation formula EV (379.49) based on state win probabilities. This illustrates The Law of Large Numbers (LLN): 5000 simulated election trials were required for the MEAN EV to CONVERGE to the THEORETICAL EV (the simulation is in the “long run”). It is computational overkill to perform a meta analysis requiring the calculation of millions of EV combination scenarios in order to calculate the win probabilities.

It's all about the Vote. An honest Vote. It's never gonna happen with your laughable system. You still have biased corrupt county officials deciding who gets to vote in a general election. Get a federal election commission to establish a federal voting data base. Get a print out from Bush's eavesdropping database, everybody should be on there. By the way all those fanatic Palinite voters do a nice job of dressing down. They all must be making over $250,000/year to agree with the republican platform, yet they look like poor underpaid Joe-six-packs. But it's these loons and the lamentable undecided fence-sitters who are ultimately going to decide who wins the vote. The socialist rhetoric is crap, the Democrats would be considered farther right than our Conservative party up here in Canada. but hang on the vitriol is just starting down there, all hell is going to break loose this week.

In the interview with Mark Crispin Miller he says even the DNC is now blind to the fact that the election has been stolen altho he is being cautious in what he is saying.But he is a professor in New York and has done his research and is well-liked in progressive circles.

My hope is that the vote spread will be overwhelming in enough places to succeed. Those progressives who decide that they want to vote for McCain and, by extension, the whole Republican crew who've been busily gumming up the works including Rove, by voting for a third party candidate such as Nader may be the ultimate flies in the ointment. Part of the Democratic Party may be too far right for many of us. Locally, I've attended meetings with Progressive Democrats. We've just had a primary with a narrow victory for our progressive candidate for governor. There was great anger when a surprise agenda item on our state committee was funding of an old establishment candidate over our progressive for the primary. THE PRIMARY! But the progressives are rising in the Democratic Party. It is the strength of the progressive grassroots which will be able to allow Obama to take many of the actions we progressives want to see. That is how democracy works. Good presidents cannot work in a political vaccuum. I have a mother who proudly voted for FDR. She voted for Hillary in the primary. But she has been certain since May that Obama will be in the White House. She's had these precognitive experiences before. Pat Williams

While all this hoopla over the polls and tha Obama is the predicted winner sounds good..i dont want to bust your bubble..but my gut feeling is Obama will not win as much as i would love for him to win..I think the Rethugs are even now stealing the election and making sure McCrackpot "wins" We all know what America wants and that is for Obama to win but it aint gonna happen is my gut feeling.I sure hope i am wrong about this.But looks like Obama and the Dems are doing nothing about the real "voter fraud" being perpretrated upon us thru the voting machine errors and purging of ballots.And these SOBs are supposed to be "professionals"? What a crock of shit !! We need REAL election REFORM.not some hocus-pokus while they "poke us" in the rear.