A Slight Chance of Obamaha: How One Red State Electoral Vote Could Make the Difference

A BUZZFLASH NEWS ALERT
by Meg White

Why would Sen. Barack Obama be concerned about 0.1 percent of the Electoral College? Well, a tie-breaker is a tie-breaker.

Nebraska as a state is still considered Republican territory; it's gone red every year since 1964. President George W. Bush won the state by 22 points in 2004. A recent Rasmussen poll puts McCain at a 19-point advantage over Obama statewide.

But, as the state splits its five electoral votes, it's possible the overall loser in that state could get one or two districts. And it turns out that Omaha might be turning into "Obamaha."

Here's how it works: The state awards two electoral votes to the winner of the popular vote. Then, each of the three congressional districts has a vote to give to whomever wins the district (which isn't necessarily the person who wins the popular vote). Therefore, Nebraska could end up awarding its five electoral votes in three ways: 5-0, 4-1, or 3-2. A technical note for those keeping score: It is apparently mathematically impossible to win all three congressional districts but still lose the popular vote.

But the only congressional district that polling indicates will make a difference is the 2nd District. The area is home to Omaha, as well as Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel, who said this summer that he would consider being Obama's running mate.

Hagel hasn't endorsed anyone in the race, but his wife has. Lillibet Hagel called a press conference Tuesday morning, only hours before the second presidential debate held in Nashville, TN, to announce her support of the Illinois Senator.

Hagel's spokesman said the Senator, who is not running for reelection, will not publicly support either candidate. Though a long-time friend of McCain's, Hagel has clashed with the Arizona Senator on the war in Iraq as well as the McCain campaign's attacks on Obama. Hagel accompanied Obama to Iraq this summer, and has been supportive of his view of the war.

According to a recent article in The Washington Post, although Republican operatives in Nebraska are virtually rolling their eyes at Obama's efforts, the demographics of Omaha, a strong Democratic congressional challenger in the 2nd District, and Obama's huge caucus victory over Hillary Clinton earlier this year all give Obama an advantage.

So, while it may be possible, that still doesn't answer the question of why, out of 538 electoral votes, Obama is worrying about just one. Well, there's a fear that there could be, for the first time in modern American politics, a 269-269 split in electoral college votes. That would bring into play the 12th Amendment.

This would mean that each state would get one vote for president, and would vote as dictated by their incoming delegation to the House of Representatives. While the Democrats have a majority in the House, it's unclear what would happen with a one-vote-per-state scenario. If that's a tie, they keep voting until a conclusion is reached.

The same situation is repeated in the Senate, only for the vice president. If the entirety of Congress is unable to come to a conclusion by the time Inauguration Day rolls around, the rules of succession come in to play, and we get House Speaker Nancy Pelosi as president.

Phew. Now we can see why Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com writes that this scenario is "like kissing your sister."

It may sound statistically negligible, but in running trials on the possibility this spring, Silver found the situation came up  0.63 percent of the time, in 56 distinct possible combinations. Recently, Silver said the possibility has increased with the changing electoral picture. Now, the possibility increased to a whopping 3.2 percent. The mostly likely scenario for a tie, according to Silver, is if Obama wins the same states John Kerry won in 2004, as well as Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado, but loses New Hampshire.

Obama's campaign has come up with 19 plausible split situations. But if that should come to pass, and Obama turns Omaha blue, the score will be 270-268, Obama.

The campaign opened up a second office in Omaha today to support the 15 paid staffers, as well as volunteers, already in the state.

On the other hand, the McCain effort in Nebraska is volunteer-driven. According to the campaign Web site, the closest office to most Nebraskans is in Centennial, CO. Sarah Palin's trip to Omaha last Sunday was seen as an effort to shore up support in the area.

However, the McCain campaign recently unveiled its own struggle for one vote in Maine. The state is the only one besides Nebraska to split its contribution to the electoral college into its two electoral districts.

These latest developments not only underscore the microscopic nature of this election, but also the benefits of thinking outside the electoral box. Nebraska would be ignored by both campaigns if it were a winner-take-all state. But with the small change in how it apportions the votes of each congressional district, the state is getting last-minute attention from both major parties. 

A BUZZFLASH NEWS ALERT

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